Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 02 September 2009 / Leave a comment

In the second of his Guinness Premiership previews, Geoffrey Riddle profiles the middle group of teams, amongst which some will settle for mid-table mediocrity while others might fancy their chances of being this season's surprise package...

"Wasps’ price has been teed-up nicely by the horrific under-pricing of Gloucester. The Cherry and Whites look dreadfully short, and I’d be happy to take anyone and everyone’s money on the West Country outfit."

Of all the teams who look overpriced for the Guinness Premiership season, the double-figure odds with one high street layer about Wasps to win the Grand Final looks the most tasty of all.

On Betfair the former champions trade at anything between [9.0] to back and [13.0] to lay for the Twickenham decider, so if you do fancy them, in any capacity, it would be best to request your price.

Wasps were desperately unlucky last season. They began their campaign appallingly and never really recovered. It must be highlighted that seven of their 11 defeats were by seven points or fewer, however.

They played a particular brand of rugby that required a better offloading ability than they could muster, and the key components that made them so successful in the previous season were not in place. Coaches Ian McGeechan and Shaun Edwards had their minds on the Lions tour, and the loss of the influential Lawrence Dallaglio surely had something to do with their atrocious start. Finally, Danny Cipriani was not playing to the best of his considerable ability, and his constant war with the press cannot have been helpful.

All that has changed. McGeechan has been replaced by Tony Hanks, formerly of Waikato. The influential and impressive Tom Rees is now skipper, with the grizzly veterans, Serge Betsen and Phil Vickery as his lieutenants. The troublesome plate in Cipriani's leg is also out. He has looked very sharp in pre-season, too.

Wasps scored just 33 tries last season - equal to relegated Bristol, and only Worcester scored fewer - and Hanks has recruited with that dreadful statistic in mind. In comes the devastating tryscorer David Lemi, who touched down nine times in 19 starts for Bristol last season. Hanks has also brought in Tom Varndell, who was top tryscorer in the league in 2005-06 with 14. Paul Sackey returns to first-team action having missed a large chunk of last season due to injury. Those three wingers combined must be in for around 20 tries between them, and with such firepower available to Wasps they should be able to improve significantly on last year's below-par seventh-placed finish.

Wasps' price has been teed-up nicely by the horrific under-pricing of Gloucester. The Cherry and Whites look dreadfully short, and I'd be happy to take anyone and everyone's money on the West Country outfit. Quite why they are considered by Betfair's small liquidity to have a better chance than Bath of winning the Grand Final is completely beyond me.

Gloucester's ignominious 16-12 defeat by a 14-man Cardiff at Kingsholm in the Heineken Cup last season was a disgrace. Although it is fair to say Gloucester's squad have learnt from that performance, that painful defeat has left an indelible scar on the team's consciousness. Skipper Gareth Delve focused, of all things, on the bottom line last week at Twickenham.

"Our fans want passion, commitment, and loyalty. That has got to be the bottom line, the Welsh international back-rower said. "We must play with passion and for each other. We certainly won't accept anything less than that."

You would have thought that didn't need saying, and it is questionable whether wounded Gloucester can make an impact on what looks a brutally tough league.
Last season, Gloucester beat the fewest defenders, made the joint-second fewest number of clean breaks and only beat relegated Bristol in the number of metres made on the pitch. Their strategy also involved making the fewest offloads and they missed the most amount of tackles.

All in all, the only thing that seems to have kept them afloat was the natural talents of their playing squad, which has been heavily disbanded. Their admirable back-row, who conceded the fewest turnovers in the league, as well as the tireless lock, Alex Brown, were also notable exceptions to a sorry season.

Sale's natural game would suggest that they could do well due to the return of the maul. In the pivot role, Charlie Hodgson has an exceptional ability to control a game with tactical kicking. He can put Sale in the right positions on the pitch from which their excellent lineout can win ball and suck in players. It was an approach that saw them almost take third place in 2007-08.

The failure of Hodgson to be a defensive player means his England career is all but over, but for Sale he turned out for 1719 minutes in the league, the most in the Premiership, and it is easy to see why he is favourite to be the highest points scorer.

Saracens look in fine shape under the guidance of new coach Brendan Venter, who learned some valuable lessons about the Premiership when player-coach for London Irish. Venter has overseen a massive turnover in players and has a large squad. He will look towards a policy of rotation at all times. The South African World Cup winner has been fine-tuning his players, too, putting them through an astonishing six pre-season friendlies. This suggests that the Men in Black will hit the ground running, but they'll need to because their first month of fixtures looks hellish.

They concede home advantage in their first two fixtures because they play London Irish at Twickenham and Northampton at Wembley the following week. Saracens follow up those matches with a tricky trip to Harlequins in week three. A return home for a match against Gloucester precedes a long journey up to Kingston Park to face Newcastle. By the start of the Heineken Cup in October, we'll know for sure how good Saracens really are.

Gloucester:

Players in: Tom Voyce (Wasps), Nicky Robinson (Cardiff Blues), Eliota Fuimaono-Sapolu (Bath), Pierre Capdevielle (Brive), Paul Doran-Jones (London Welsh) Tim Molenaar (Nottingham).

Players out: Jack Adams (Bristol), Anthony Allen (Leicester ), Ryan Lamb (London Irish), Iain Balshaw (Biarritz), Gareth Cooper (Cardiff Blues), Olly Barkley (Bath), Carlos Nieto (Saracens), Matthew Watkins (Gwent Dragons), Willie Walker (Worcester), Dan Norton (Bristol), Jack Forster (Sale Sharks), David Young (Edinburgh), Mark Foster (Exeter), Andy Titterrell (released), James Forrester (Retired).

Northampton:

Players in: Dan Vickerman (Australia), Shane Geraghty (London Irish), Brian Mujati (Western Province), Phil Dowson (Newcastle), Santiago Bonorino (Leicester).

Players out: Sean Lamont (Scarlets), Ben Lewitt (Bedford), Alex Rae (Bedford), Neil Starling (London Welsh), Tom Smith, Barry Stewart, Matt Lord (all retired).

Sale Sharks:

Players in: Ben Cohen (Brive), Sisa Kayamaibole (Toulon), Gavin Kerr (Edinburgh), David Seymour (Saracens), Mahonri Schwalger (Scarlets), David Bishop (Ospreys), Marika Vakacegu (Cornish Pirates).

Players out: Luke McAlister (Auckland Blues), Jason White (Clermont Auvergne), Lionel Faure (Clermont Auvergne), Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe (Toulon), Sebastien Bruno (Toulon), Rory Lamont (Toulon), Sebastien Chabal (Racing-Metro), Dave Ward (Cornish Pirates), Ross Davies (Ospreys), Michael Hills (London Welsh), Rudi Keil (released).

Saracens:

Players in: Carlos Nieto (Gloucester), Richard Skuse (London Irish), Schalk Brits (Stormers), Frik Venter (Sharks), Ethienne Reynecke (Lions), Ernst Joubert (Lions), Derrick Hougaard (Leicester), Michael Horak (Treviso), Rhys Gill (Cardiff Blues), Kevin Barrett (Exeter), Michael Tagicakibau (London Welsh), Mouritz Botha (Bedford).

Players out: Chris Jack (Western Province), Cencus Johnston (Toulouse), Kris Chesney (Toulon), Ben Skirving (Bath), Andy Kyriacou (Ulster), Ben Jacobs (Wasps), Dan Scarbrough (Racing-Metro), David Seymour (Sale Sharks), Alex Walker (Newcastle), Micky Wilson (Viadana), Andy Farrell (retired), Cobus Visagie (retired), Gordon Ross (released).

Wasps:

Players in: Steve Kefu (Castres), Lee Smith (Leeds Rhinos), Tom Varndell (Leicester), Dan Ward-Smith (Bristol), David Lemi (Bristol), Jason Hobson (Bristol), Ben Jacobs (Saracens), Marty Veale (Northland), Warren Fury (London Irish), Eoghan Hickey (London Irish), Ben Broster (Worcester), Chris Whitehead (Coventry).

Players out: James Haskell (Stade Francais), Tom Palmer (Stade Francais), Riki Flutey (Brive), Pat Barnard (Brive), Tom Voyce (Gloucester), Eoin Reddan (Leinster), Jeremy Staunton (Leicester), Michael Holford (London Welsh), Damian Varley (Munster) Josh Lewsey (retired), Raphael Ibanez (retired), Rob Hoadley (coaching), Mossy Lawler.

Tags: Bath rugby, Danny Cipriani, Geoffrey Riddle, Gloucester rugby, Guinness Premiership Rugby Union Betting, Saracens, Tom Varndell, Wasps