Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 17 April 2009 / Leave a comment

There are some fascinating duels on the Guinness Premiership undercard this weekend. Although Newcastle's tussle with Bath at Kingston Park is blessed with the Sky cameras, there seems a whole host of home teams that may be worth supporting, and at good prices, too, writes Geoffrey Riddle.

Bristol came within an ace of beating Wasps at Adams Park a few weeks ago. Although the West Country side outscored their more illustrious opponents by three tries to two that day, they went down 21-19. Bristol are likely to be around [2.4] in Sunday's clash at the Memorial Ground, but Wasps have lost their last six road matches and it is Bristol's last fixture at home in the Premiership. I'd be happy to lay McGeechan's visitors at anything up to around [1.7].

It has been noted that coach Shaun Edwards has been plotting a way back for his Wasps outfit from his holiday break in the Caribbean recently, so his charges could be dangerous, but realistically Bristol should have nothing to fear from a side that languishes in ninth place in the league.

London Irish's season has all but collapsed after their shock defeat to the dastardly Bourgoin last Thursday. Having consistently spurned the opportunity to perform on the European stage, the Frenchmen sprung one of the great surprises with their 32-30 European Challenge Cup win at the Madejski.

The Exiles may still boast a place in the top four, but this week's fixture against Northampton, who have lost just once at Franklin's Gardens since May 2007, looks fraught with danger, and also they must play away at Sixways next weekend in the final round. As a result, they might not even make the play-offs.

Saracens are another team who may be doing a spot of giant-killing this weekend as they host table-toppers Leicester, who need only a bonus-point to secure their fifth successive play-off spot. Sarries have beaten Leicester the last two times they have visited Vicarage Road, and given that the Men in Black booked a Challenge Cup semi-final berth last weekend, confidence in Watford will have been raised a few notches.

Leicester reached the same stage of the Heineken Cup last weekend, however, with a last-gasp 20-15 success over Bath, but they will be without Alesana Tuilagi, who has been banned for some off-the-ball fisticuffs with Nick Abendanon. I'd be amazed if Sarries were favourites for this, but I see this as a true scratch match.

The other game of interest is Sale's Friday night fixture with Harlequins. Quins went out of the Heineken Cup on Sunday with a 6-5 defeat to Leinster. It is a short turnaround, particularly having to go up to Manchester, and with Sale enjoying a two-week break, things could be very difficult for Quins at Edgeley Park. The Premiership's two best defences go up against each other here, and with both sides needing a win to massage their play-off egos, I think the unders in the total points market, which is pitched at 41.5, looks serious value.

I notice that with some high street bookies, Sale are around 100-1 to win the play-offs. Surely with a win over Quins here and another home fixture against Northampton next week, Sale have a modest chance of reaching the last four? Their coach, Kingsley Jones certainly seems to think so. "This is a game we have to win to give us any chance at all of finishing in the top four," he said this week. "We have two games to go, both at home and we will be going out to try and finish the regular season on a high." It may be worth going fishing with the Sharks and putting up a huge price on Betfair in the Grand Final market to see what you can get. Be warned though, with such limited liquidity in this market, you are unlikely to be able to trade this. It is a longshot punt, no more.

The serious punters, however, will be getting their teeth stuck into Sunday's live game. Although Bath's loss narrow loss to Leicester was expected, it was heartening to see that they were still in the game at the death. Still, Steve Meehan's men have lost their last four away fixtures (Leicester, Sale, Sarries, Gloucester), but all four have been by single figure margins. With Newcastle unbeaten at Kingston Park since November, it might be a tall order for Bath to grab all the points up there, and the best bet is probably to take the Falcons in the winning margin betting by 1-12 points.