Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 08 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Geoffrey Riddle believes that the away sides will need to emulate Leinster's heroics of last weekend if they are to progress to the final. But where does that leave bettors?

Ever since Munster meekly conceded to Leinster in the Heineken Cup last weekend, it has been difficult for punters to place their faith in anything. Leinster's win was momentous, and at [1.33] the painful loss of backing the reigning champions will live long in the memory for those who invested in the Red Army.

A similar effort is going to be needed by Bath and London Irish this Saturday if they are to break the dominance of home sides in the Premiership play-offs. There have been nine play-offs since the inception of the knockout format in 2003, and only Andy Goode's miraculous drop-goal effort last year for Leicester against Gloucester has propelled an away side into the Premiership final.

Bath travel to the Walkers Stadium to face regular season winners Leicester for the first semi-final at 3pm. London Irish take on their old landlords Harlequins at The Stoop at 5.30pm. Both of the home teams boast strong form, and it is no wonder therefore to see Leicester trade at [1.38] and Harlequins [1.57].

The Tigers, under their award-winning coach, Richard Cockerill, are on a sensational streak having lost just one of their last 11 matches in all competitions. They also have a strong pedigree in semi-finals, a stage at which they have not lost in their last seven attempts in all tournaments. And there are further statistics to suggest that Cockerill's men may go all the way. No Grand Final winner has finished the league with less than 68 points, which, if taken literally, means Leicester are home and hosed already.

Bath have also played Leicester four times this season and won only once, the 25-21 Premiership fixture at The Rec in November. If you are a trader, the [2.32] about Leicester winning the Grand Final looks easy money ahead of next weekend's Twickenham showdown.

However, Leinster's win highlights how dangerous it is to write off the opposition so easily, and Bath's form merits close inspection. Steve Meehan's men have had a week more preparation time than their rivals, with Leicester facing a six-day turnaround.

Bath have performed exceptionally away from home in the league, scoring an average of 19.8 points on the road against sides that finished in the top six. They beat Sale and London Irish, and if the visitors can front up to Cockerill's Tigers, the 'overs' in the total points market may well bust once more in a Leciester fixture.

Leicester average just over 32 points at home this season in all competitions, but that figure goes down to 27.7 when you take out the whippings against Bristol and Treviso. When you consider that Premiership semi-finals are generally high-scoring affairs, the 'overs' are an alluring bet for this match.

Although Harlequins and London Irish have been among the best sides for running the ball this season, it is actually their defence that has got them into the top four. As a result, the total points market looks tricky pre-match, particularly as these teams struggle to put in a solid 80-minute display.

Quins built up massive leads in the first half earlier in the season, while London Irish have struggled in the first 40 minutes throughout the entire campaign. They were level against Worcester last week at the break before going on to score four second-half tries to win 32-15, and last month they trailed Northampton 21-8 at the interval. It was the same story in both the matches against Harlequins at The Stoop this season, too, with Irish winning both encounters.

But a lot has been made of these weaknesses, both in the media and on the training pitch, and I'm not sure how much of a bearing these tendencies will have on the outcome of this fixture. I certainly wouldn't consider Harlequins as a back-to-lay proposition solely for these reasons.

What is important, however, is the Exiles' record away against teams in the top six. They drew with Bath, and lost to Gloucester and Leicester by two points. Only Sale stretched things by winning 14-8. As a result, Irish look a decent pre-match trade in the handicap market, as well as the winning margin market receiving 1-12 points.

Anyone who saw Irish play against Worcester a fortnight ago may have thought that skipper Bob Casey had never met Nick Kennedy before, such was the paucity of decent lineout ball in the first half. But Casey had just returned from injury, and the lineout will be a strong source of possession for the Exiles this time around. A useful tool in what is likely to be a close encounter.