Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 24 April 2009 / Leave a comment

The most competitive Guinness Premiership season draws to a conclusion this Saturday, and all six fixtures are 3pm kick-offs. Sky will broadcast Bath's match-up with Saracens, and they will have a live feed to the other five games, which should generate decent in-running trading, writes Geoffrey Riddle.

Worcester and Bristol are the only teams with nothing tangible to play for this weekend, but both of their games merit punters' consideration. The top six teams are still jostling for a play-off spot, while Northampton and Wasps, and even Sarries and Newcastle are still in hope of playing Heineken Cup rugby next season. If Bourgoin win the European Challenge Cup, then seventh place is good enough to dine at Europe's top table next year.

So with all to play for, punters are in for an enthralling 80 minutes and things could easily go down to the wire. Last season, Tom Varndell's try against Harlequins at 4.39pm lifted Leicester from sixth place to fourth, and chucked Quins out of play-off contention altogether. Similarly, Raphael Ibanez's try at 4.10pm against Leeds took Wasps from third spot to second, a position from which they launched their assault on the Guinness Premiership title.

All of the possible permutations for this season's play-offs and for the Heineken Cup spots can be read here.

With all of those permutations in mind, therefore, it is worth having a sneak look at the Grand Final Winner market where Leicester are favourites at [2.26]. My tip at the outset of the season was for Bath to triumph, and at their current price of [5.4] they are considerably shorter, albeit to minimal liquidity. Steve Meehan's squad lies in third, however, and with Harlequins [4.3] also having a home game against Newcastle, the top three are likely to be unchanged if things go to form. This is because if teams finish with the same number of points, it goes to games won and the Londoners currently boast 13 victories to Bath's 12.

I have been trying to find a way to oppose London Irish for the last few weeks because I did not think that they would make the play-offs, but that stops now. Thanks to Sale's ridiculous ploy of fielding an unregistered player, the Sharks now have bitten off more than they can chew due to the deduction of one crucial point, and they look unlikely to make the the final four now.

Despite all their wonderful play this season, London Irish never really got over the problems caused by the Six Nations and the injury to their inspirational skipper Bob Casey. They have lost seven of their last 10 matches going back to January and they also haven't won on the road in the league since November 30th when they beat lowly Bristol. A win at Sixways may have been beyond them this weekend, given their current malaise, but Casey returns for this. Worcester beat Gloucester on Tuesday at Kingsholm, and with a European tie on the immediate horizon, the Warriors' minds are likely to be on other things.

Punters would do well to look out for those games that could bust the 'overs' in the total points markets. The final round of the Guinness Premiership has long been a source for 'overs' players. Last year Wasps demolished Leeds 45-28 and Worcester bulldozed Newcastle 51-10. Every year there are one or two more obvious choices, and Leicester's confrontation with Bristol at the Walkers Stadium looks a prime candidate.

Barring a catastrophe, Leicester will finish top of the Premiership pile, and Bristol's relegation, along with the fact that this fixture does not take place at Welford Road, all contribute to the general impression that this is an exhibition match. Coach Paul Hull has named a strong West Country line-up, with the likes of Dan Ward-Smith, Shaun Perry and David Lemi, and his side will be up for this. All the ingredients of a points fest if there ever was one.