Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 02 September 2009 / Leave a comment

With the Guinness Premiership set to kick-off on Friday, Betting.Betfair's number one union man Geoffrey Riddle takes a close look at all 12 teams, beginning with the clubs which are likely to be battling relegation...

"None of the most likely trio for relegation - Leeds [1.66], Worcester [3.0] and Newcastle [10.0] - have a particularly poor draw as far as the fixture list is concerned, and perhaps when the dust settles in May, Leeds will indeed be the side that falls through the trap door."

Neil Back, that most crafty of former England back-row forwards, may hold all the clues to the relegation conundrum that faces rugby punters ahead of this year's Guinness Premiership season.

Back continues in his role as head coach of Leeds Carnegie, the Premiership new boys who were promoted last year from Division One, having lost just two of their league matches. And at just [1.66] for the drop, there are many out there who believe that Leeds will return swiftly from whence they came.

It is easy to forget that during the last eight years, the Yorkshire club have been in the Premiership six times. Back, however, has had an entire season with which to get his troops ready for what is going to be a tough battle to avoid relegation.

Throughout last year, the former England hero rotated his squad in an effort to raise fitness levels. Unsurprisingly, from a man who was one of the fittest players in Sir Clive Woodward's World Cup winning side, Back believes that fitness will be the key to his side's survival.

"One of our main objectives last year was to bring our squad on physically from a performance point of view, that's why there was a lot of rotation," Back said at the Guinness Premiership launch at Twickenham.

"When Leeds were relegated last time they couldn't compete physically and mentally for 80 plus minutes. They were not very good in the final quarter.

"This time it is going to be different. We have doubled our management team and we have tailored our management team to players' individual needs.

"We recruited Steve Nance, who could have gone to any high-performance elite sports team. He is our elite performance director and has been key to where the guys are now in terms of performance."

Back's insistence that his team will be able to go further than the distance could be crucial. Last season almost half of the matches played in the league were decided by seven points or fewer. If Back's brigade are only just getting in their stride in the final quarter of each fixture, they will hard to beat at home, and will almost certainly pick up bonus points on the road.

What's more, that knowledge could be extremely useful for any in-running punter, although rather disgracefully, Leeds are not scheduled to play a live league fixture on Sky Sports this calendar year.

None of the most likely trio for relegation, Leeds, Worcester [3.0] and Newcastle [10.0], have a particularly poor draw as far as the fixture list is concerned, and perhaps when the dust settles in May, Leeds will indeed be the side that falls through the trap door.

But Worcester struggled at the lineout last season, despite the inestimable presence of 6ft 8ins lock Craig Gillies. They won the fewest lineouts in the league last year, which spells doom when you consider that the return of the driving maul has made that particular facet of play very important indeed.

Coach Mike Ruddock also recruited frugally, bringing in only Willie Walker full-time after his loan spell last season, Adam Black from Newport and Olivier Sourgens from Bordeaux. Those acquisitions certainly don't counterbalance the players who have left, and don't forget that Worcester scored the fewest tries out of any team last season.

Recruitment is not something that Newcastle coach Steve Bates has taken lightly. No fewer than 23 players have left Kingston Park, including an entire backline with players of the calibre of Tom May, Jamie Noon, Ollie Phillips, and of course, Jonny Wilkinson, all heading for pastures new.

Bates has brought in 17 players, and fly-half Jimmy Gopperth, who finished fifth in the Super 14 points table for the Auckland Blues this season, is a marquee signing. But with the maul back in operation and the grunt up front taken way in the shape of the departed Geoff Parling, Ross Beattie, and Andy Buist, how are Newcastle, once again, going to compete up front?

With little liquidity in the 'Rock Bottom' market, it is difficult to squeeze any money out from a trading perspective. That said, I feel that given the management team that Back has assembled at Leeds, and the performance and excellence that he is striving for, Leeds have probably got just enough in the tank to justify laying them for the drop at odds-on.

Leeds:

Players in: Marco Wentzel (Leicester), Andy Gomarsall (Harlequins), Alfie To'oala (Bristol), Henry Fa'afili (Biarritz), Gareth Hardy (Western Force), Ceiron Thomas (Scarlets).

Players out: Tom Biggs, Rob Vickerman (both Newcastle), James Brooks (Doncaster), Andy Boyde (Doncaster), Alberto Di Bernardo (Bourgoin), Jon Dunbar (Bourgoin), Rob Vickers, Adam Hopcroft.

Newcastle:

Players in: Gcobani Bobo (Stormers), Jimmy Gopperth (Blues), James Hudson (London Irish), Filipo Levi (Ospreys), Tom Biggs (Leeds), Rob Vickerman (Leeds), Laurence Ovens (Bath), Chris Micklewood (Brive), Charlie Amesbury (Harlequins), Alex Walker (Saracens), Uche Oduoza (Suntory), Josh Afu (Doncaster), Kieran Brookes (Fylde), Grant Shiells (Kelso), Michael Tait (Kelso).

Players out: Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon), Tom May (Toulon), Jamie Noon (Brive), David Wilson (Bath), Phil Dowson (Northampton), Ollie Phillips (Stade Francais), James Grindal (Leicester), Geoff Parling (Leicester), Rory Clegg (Harlequins), Andy Buist (London Irish), Andy Perry (London Irish), Steve Jones (Edinburgh), Tim Visser (Edinburgh), Joe McDonnell (Cetransa El Salvador), Ross Batty (Rotherham), Andy Long (Rotherham), Sean Tomes (Exeter), Russell Winter (retired), John Rudd, Tom Dillon, Joe Shaw.

Worcester:

Players in: Willie Walker (Gloucester), Adam Black (Gwent Dragons), Olivier Sourgens (Begles-Bordeaux) Calum MacRae (Edinburgh).
Players out: Loki Crichton (Suntory), Darren Morris (Cardiff Blues), Ben Jones (released), Hal Luscombe, Chris Horsman, Matt Powell (all retired).

Tags: Geoffrey Riddle, Guinness Premiership Betting, Leeds Carnegie, Neil Back, Newcastle Falcons, Worcester Rugby Club