Guinness Premiership Betting Preview: Will Irish sink in mud Bath?

Guiness Premiership / Geoffrey Riddle / 26 November 2009 / Leave a comment

As long as London Irish can organise their tight five in time for Saturday, the Exiles' encounter with Bath promises to be close. Geoffrey Riddle selects the best bets.

"If it does end up as a kick-fest, Bath fly-half Nicky Little has a strike-rate of 70.59% at the posts, while London Irish's No.10 has kicked 69.57% of his goals. It's going to be close."

On Wednesday night, there was silly trading going on in the market for Saturday's live Guinness Premiership clash between Bath and London Irish.

Some chancers had put in £100 at [1.01] and £50 at [1.02]. Is there any point in such a betting approach? I completely understand if you want to be the first in the queue in-running, but pre-match markets simply don't work in the same way. Each to their own.

The point of looking at that market was to get a steer on this weekend's live Guinness fare. The question we have got to all ask ourselves is whether we think London Irish are the equal, or better, of Leicester, Wasps or Stade Francais?

When Leicester went down to the West Country earlier this season, they were considered anything between scratch and two-point underdogs. Ditto the flash Parisian dandies of Stade Francais. Wasps, who have been underrated a lot this season, were chalked up three to four-point underdogs. Tony Hanks's men won 17-15, while Leicester came away with an honourable 20-20 draw. Bath's most recent of those three fixtures was the Heineken Cup clash with the French side just before the international window. Stade went back across La Manche with a famous 29-27 win.

So with that in mind, it's crucial to know how good London Irish really are in comparison to those three sides. On the face it, most punters would say that they are better than all of them. The league table never lies. Booth's squad sits in second behind Saracens in the Guinness Premiership table, having lost twice. They fell at the first hurdle at the double header at Twickenham to the league leaders, but Sunday's defeat to Newcastle was a real shock.

Booth named a strong squad to take on the in-form Falcons. He lined up 10 internationals in the run-on side, including Bob Casey and Nick Kennedy in the engine room, and Ryan Lamb, who pulled the strings at pivot. The most frightening aspect of the Exiles' tame effort was the fact that the Falcons' victory was based largely on forward grit and power. An unyielding defence also helped. Bath pack some serious poundage in their scrum, and if Booth hasn't sorted out his tight-five in the short turnaround they could easily get steam-rollered into the West Country mud.

Bath last played on Friday night, and therefore enjoy an extra two day's rest for what is gearing up to be a crunch encounter for Steve Meehan's men. Anchored to the bottom of the league, saved from ignominy only by Leeds, Bath have been talking a good game for the past few days. They are determined to end their poor run of results, and with the rain teeming down at The Rec, they will be ready for the arm-wrestle that is likely to ensue. For the record, if it does end up as a kick-fest, Bath fly-half Nicky Little has a strike-rate at the posts of 70.59%, while London Irish No.10 has kicked 69.57% of his goals. It's going to be close.

A glance at the rugby ratings website www.eurorugby.com suggests that Irish are not as good currently as either Leicester or Wasps, but marginally better than Stade. As such, it would be fair to suggest that that a scratch match is probably the true trading level for this game. I'd go Bath [2.1] and the visitors [1.95], with the rest making up the draw.

Tags: Bath Rugby, Geoffrey Riddle, Guiness Premiership betting odds, Guinness Premiership betting tips, London Irish, Nick Kennedy, Rugby betting odds, Rugby betting tips