The Betfair Contrarian: Why the British and Irish Lions will win in South Africa

British Lions / The Betfair Contrarian / 21 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

With an Irish captain, the 'best coach in the world' and softer opposition than in recent years, The Betfair Contrarian believes that the British Lions will defy the markets and overcome the World Champions in their upcoming Test series.

Like Battersea Dogs Home, the Contrarian loves all underdogs, but amongst his favourite breeds are those whose slight inferiority is magnified by the fatheadness of the favourites, making them look worse than they really are. The British and Irish Lions may have rolled over rather than roared when they crashed to a 3-0 series defeat in New Zealand on their last tour in 2005, but with a successful coaching team now in place, heres why the Contrarian is backing them to beat world champions South Africa international giants at rugby and smugness - at 3.4 on Betfair.

They won on their last trip to South Africa

The Lions last tour of South Africa was in 1997, and on that occasion they defied the odds to win the series 2-1. The margin of victory was more emphatic than the final score suggests, as the visitors won the first two tests to seal the series with a game to spare, which they ultimately lost 35-16. That was the Lions second success in three visits to the current world champions. In 1974, they battered the Springboks 3-0, winning each of the first three tests to wrap up the series before drawing the fourth.

Luck of the Irish

That comfortable victory in 1974, their last whitewash over the Springboks, was also significant because it was the last time that the Lions travelled to South Africa with an Irish captain, Willie John McBride. This year they will be hoping that Limerick-born lock Paul O'Connell can prove just as successful.

McGeechan is back at the helm

Tactical genius Ian McGeechan returns as head coach for the first time in 12 years and his track record makes him arguably the best ever Lions boss. The 62-year-old first took charge against Australia in 1989, when the Lions came from behind to win 2-1 - their first series victory in 15 years. He was then in charge against New Zealand in 1993 when the Lions took the All Blacks to the final game before losing 2-1. Despite defeat, the series was a relative success considering their previous tour to New Zealand ended in a 4-0 thumping and the next one in 2005 was a 3-0 reverse. McGeechan's final tour in charge came in 1997 when he masterminded a way past then world champions South Africa, with pundits unanimous in their verdict that it was the Scots tactical ingenuity that ensured the Lions triumphed over a superior set of players.

The Lions have better coaches

Alongside McGeechan in the Lions coaching set-up are Warren Gatland, the New Zealander who won the Grand Slam with Wales at last years Six Nations, and Shaun Edwards, the former rugby league player who converted to join Wasps as a coach in 2001. Since then he has won the Guinness Premiership three times and the Heineken Cup twice and he has been described by Matt Dawson as the best coach in the world. South Africa, on the other hand, are led by Peter de Villiers, an inexperienced political appointee.

South Africa are not as scary as New Zealand or Australia

The Springboks may be the reigning world champions a feat that owes as much to France and England taking out New Zealand and Australia as it does to South African efficiency but the Lions wont be too awestricken when they face them. De Villiers side have lost two of their last three home games and have finished bottom of the Tri Nations in three successive years.

Bouncing back from whitewashes

Considering resilience isn't the most common British sporting attribute, it is surprising how well the Lions recover from humbling defeats. On each of the last four times that they have suffered a whitewash, they have bounced back with victory on the following tour. Thats a very encouraging sign considering they were crushed 3-0 by New Zealand four years ago.