British Lions / Tony Calvin / 09 June 2009 / Leave a comment

The Lions will be looking to put down a marker on Wednesday as Ian McGeechan fields a side closely resembling the one which will face-off with the Spring Boks on June 20. However, as Tony Calvin explains, punters may want to play the short game...

The Sharks have had some of their sharper teeth pulled as they take on the Lions in Durban on Wednesday - all but one of their current Springboks are unavailable for this match - but do they still have enough bite to give the tourists a severe examination?

The Betfair handicap line of 16.5, which currently trades at around the even money mark, suggests not - and the 10-11 lines elsewhere in the industry range from -15 to -18. Current match odds of [1.16] indicate that matters shouldn't get too testing for the Lions at the ABSA stadium.

But, on Betfair, you can play the short game or the long game.

The long game is having your pre-match bet and letting it ride. And certainly the Lions have selected enough of their probable starting Test XV on Wednesday night to suggest that they can beat the home side by upwards of 17 points.

In fact, they may be missing only three, maybe four, players from the side that will face off against the Springboks, so they must be looking to put down a marker here.

Put a gun to my head and I would say the Lions will cover the handicap. But it is the short game that many play when betting on these games, the trading angle. And I am no different.

Granted, that would have backfired in the tourists' pillar-to-post 70 point rout against the Golden Lions and looked down and out after 20 minutes against the Cheetahs, but this tour has already shown the perils of going in too deep, too early on Ian McGeechan's men.

This Lions side have already been in two matches where [1.01] match odds backers would have been on the verge of a heart attack. A scratch Royal XV led the tourists by 12 points with 15 minutes to go in the opener (the pre-match [1.03] Lions drifted to [4.1]), and the Cheetahs were within a penalty or a drop goal of coming back from a 20-0 first quarter deficit to win at the weekend.

So the way I will approach this game is to get with the Sharks on the 16.5 line, and against the Lions on the match odds mark - in fact, I am up to lay them at [1.13] and [1.14] in the belief that the money-buyers may get involved near kick-off. I'll look to trade out if when they hopefully shorten to [1.4] on the handicap line, and I will be hanging on for a Sharks lay at around [3.0] in the match odds.

I think this is the most powerful XV the Lions have sent out yet (even though captain Paul O'Connell is failing to impress, and Shane Williams has been the worst player on tour to date alongside Keith Earls) but they certainly won't be underestimating this Sharks side, Springboks or not.

Yes, the Sharks are under-strength but they aren't weak, and the Lions will have to be at their best to counter what is still a very tasty looking Sharks eight, who have good, ball-winning units in all three rows. Their current international prop Deon Carstens has been released from the Bok squad to play in this game and the home forwards will fancy their chances of at least parity up front, in the scrum, in the air and on the ground.

The Lions definitely have the edge out wide, but if they do struggle for quick ball, then this could develop into a dogfight for the first 60 minutes or so, before the Lions class out wide calms the management's nerves.

So let's back to lay those Sharks.