Rugby Betting Preview: South Africa v British & Irish Lions

British Lions / Geoffrey Riddle / 25 June 2009 / 4 Comments

Geoffrey Riddle provides some much needed objectivity as he weighs up Ian McGeechan's men's chances of becoming only the third Lions side to come back from 1-0 down to win a Test series.

When betting on any sporting event in a foreign land that involves a British team, it is always wise to read the local reports. The process gives you an objective view, which is crucial to betting. And if you were to believe the British press without consulting their South African counterparts in the lead up to Saturday's Test match between the British & Irish Lions and the Springboks, you probably wouldn't see anything wrong with backing the tourists at [3.65] to win the vital clash in Pretoria on Saturday.

That would be an enormous mistake though, because quite simply, if you look at the first Test objectively, the Lions were massively outclassed. Any side that can take off their five best players and still be 26-7 ahead with 13 minutes to go is in complete control. The Lions' pack was demolished. They lost four scrums from 11 feeds, and Phil Vickery gave away four penalties, from which nine points were taken. In all the hullaballoo about Vickery, analysts seemed to miss the fact that the Lions lost three line-outs - from just nine throws - and one of those was a catch and drive which resulted in a touchdown. The 30-metre steamrollering in the maul was painful to watch, too.

A Lions fightback to take the scoreline to 26-21 it may have been, but consider actually what you saw up front on Saturday in that final quarter. There were just three scrums once all of the front-row changes had been made - a flimsy formguide for those who believe that forwards coach Graham Rowntree can somehow work the oracle in just seven days.

What's more, the Lions have been encamped in Cape Town ever since that loss. Anyone who tuned in to watch the Emerging Springboks salvage a draw on Tuesday will have seen what the weather was like. Driving rain, squalls and cold temperatures have beset the Cape all week. A wet and windy training ground at sea level is no preparation for a crunch Test match in sunny Pretoria, 1,753 meters at altitude.

The British press have tried to dismiss the altitude factor by saying that only half the Springbok squad ply their regular trade on the high veld, but they ignore the fact that the squad were camped in Johannesburg when they met up, and they play there regularly during the Super 14 season. Line-outs are more of a feature in games at altitude, because the ball flies further, encouraging a territorial kicking game. The Lions have ignored this by keeping Stephen Jones at fly-half at the expense of Ronan O'Gara, who likes nothing more than kicking to the corners. If Victor Matfield and Bakkies Botha can dominate the throw-in once more, it could be curtains for the tourists.

The current price of [1.41] about the world champions indicates a handicap line of between six and seven points, something which is echoed by most high street bookmakers, although some are offering a more realistic nine-point start. Rugby betting expert and former Bath lock Brian Cusack believes that it will be harder for the Lions to rectify their weaknesses.

"On the one hand you can say that South Africa will shore up their centres, and will go on and win comfortably. On the other, you could say the Lions will make their pack meatier and will be competitive. I think the former is easier to achieve and much more likely."

That outlook is shared by the Springboks assistant coach, Gary Gold. "The Lions know where they went wrong in Durban and we are expecting a much more intense forward onslaught from them," Gold said. "But if they feel more confident because of the way it went for them in the last 20 minutes, and feel they now have the answers to where they went wrong, then we are happy for them to think that.

"They will be thinking that they just need parity to beat us. We are working hard on our defence this week, but we would still like to prevent them from getting too much ball through their pack, which is one of the reasons we have included five forwards on our bench."

The Lions face a massive task on the high veld. They will look to press home their advantage in midfield where Brian O'Driscoll and the admirable Jamie Roberts have a significant edge over the injured Adrian Jacobs. They will hope that Matthew Rees and Adam Jones will shore up a faulty scrum and that Simon Shaw, who is the tallest, and by far the heaviest lock on tour, will beef up the pack. And even if Luke Fitzgerald does finish better than the hapless Ugo Monye, all this is still unlikely to be enough. South Africa will be better.

Only twice in Lions history have the tourists come back from 1-0 down to win a series. A lot has been written about Ian McGeechan's impressive coaching performance in 1989 when a Finlay Calder-inspired Lions roared back against Australia. But it was 90 years earlier when the Lions managed it the first time. Reverend Matthew Mullineux led the Lions to a 3-1 series victory over Australia, having lost 13-3 in the first Test in Sydney. God, it seemed, was on their side, and he may have to be again if the Lions are to salvage anything in the Rainbow Nation this time around.

Comments (4)

1. scott moorhead | 25 June 2009

   Geoffrey Geoffrey,

   Statiscal anaylsis is valid, especially when looking at scrums and line-outs won, but one must always remember when gambling that this is sport amd random things can happen. No statistical anaylsis in the world would have predicted that the USA would beat an pretty much full strength Spanish side. That had all thier top players present ( Torres, Riera and Alonso included)and still lost to a bunch of untalented yanks ( Dempsey aside)

   However I do think the Lions can win and 3.65 on a two team event is decent value. If the scrum is fixed and Phillips remembers that gettting the ball out quickly is important and not just something to do around 5 yard breaks then they do stand a decent chance. Incidently I blame him almost as much as Vickery for the poor start last week.

   
   Anyway - fingers crossed as the stats are against them on Saturday.

2. Tommy P | 25 June 2009

   Great piece Geoff, couple of comments. The breakdown is where the game will be won and lost come Saturday. The Boks won this facet of the game last week, but did the ref play into their hands with a more Super 14 interpretation of the "on your feet" at the breakdown ruling? This weekend it'll be a different ball game with Frenchman Christophe Berdos taking charge.
   In terms of the prep work in Capetown, I agree this is not ideal, but the Lions have played at altitude more recently than the Boks, so I don't see this a a problem.
   You're right in that the Boks did take off some of their best players last week, but calling them the "best six" is a little extreme, the likes of Smit, Matfield, Steyn and Habana may have something to say about that. On Saturday, Simon Shaw will be a welcome combatant in the line out to challenge Matfield's menace. Now to the scrums, we were clearly beaten here last week, but Gatland will have worked with Rowntree in preparing the three Welshmen to tame the beast and his accomplices. That leaves the Lions most dangerous weapon, the back line. Roberts is cutting great lines and dominating the gain line with O'Driscoll on his shoulder and the fire power out wide. I wouldn't like to be Jacobs or Steyn come Saturday. As for Jones, he'll have his kicking boots ready.
   I'll admit that this is a somewhat patriotic skew from a Lions supporter, but that's what it's all about, backing your boys. Living in the States and having to listen to SA commentary I can tell you one thing's for sure, there is no objective view point there.
   So let's bet against the odds and from the heart. Just think how satisfying it'll be when the Lions win.
   

3. Paul | 27 June 2009

   Tommy
   A great shout regarding the different refereeing we can expect today, should make a difference - though sadly not enough...
   Paul

4. Shane H | 27 June 2009

   Leave the heart out of betting Tommy, it clouds judgement. Come on the lions