Rugby Betting: Emerging Springboks v British and Irish Lions

British Lions / Tony Calvin / 22 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

Reeling from their humiliation in the scrum and forced to start with two replacement props, the Lions are in for a tough time on Tuesday night against a strong Emerging Springboks side, says Tony Calvin.

Saturday was an opportunity lost for the British and Irish Lions, but Tuesday's match against the Emerging Springboks threatens more disappointment as the home side's coach Dick Muir has named a very strong squad indeed.

The problem is that many will think that the Betfair market has pretty much factored that in already, with the Lions trading at 1.47 on Betfair and asked to overcome a handicap of "just" six or seven points on most lines.

So what is a Betfair punter to do?

After the weekend humiliation in the scrum, it cannot be a positive that the Lions are forced to start with their two tour replacement props, Tim Payne and John Hayes, on Tuesday night. They can't have been in the country for more than two days.

And it would be fair to say that Payne and Hayes are noted more for their work around the park, rather than in the blast furnace of the scrum. If the first couple of set-pieces go badly for the Lions, then it could be déjà vu. And I wouldn't expect Phil Vickery would relish coming on to shore up a malfunctioning scrum.

The Lions back five is another solid if unspectacular group of individuals , with all bar Martyn Williams known for a more confrontational approach than invention. And not too many teams thrive in South Africa by adopting the head-on approach.

The three-quarters obviously house some talented individuals - the likes of Shane Williams, Riki Flutey and Luke Fitzgerald were seen as Test starters at the beginning of the tour - but none bar Fitzgerald look to have too much chance of playing their way into the Test side, and expecting them to suddenly gel could be naïve. We saw how physical opposition can make life difficult for the midweek Lions when they scraped home 20-8 against the Southern Kings last Tuesday.

And this Emerging Springboks side certainly have the look of a very nuggety side, indeed.

There are four Blue Bulls in the pack, and one senses their back row will give the tourists plenty of trouble. And while the back line lacks class, there are some meaty runners in there, notably full-back Zane Kirchner, and they will at least have the familiar Golden Lions half-back pairing of Jano Vermaak and Earl Rose pulling the strings.

There are two ways of looking at this match.

Either the midweek Lions side will inspire the Test side, as they did in 1997, with a resounding win or the seeds of the forwards' doubt will seep into the tourists' play and be exploited by an Emerging Springbok pack that on paper has a very handy look to it.

It's the latter for me, and I'll go for the jugular and lay the Lions sub 1.5 as the play here.

Teams:

Emerging Springboks: 15 Zane Kirchner (Blue Bulls), 14 Luzuko Vulindlu (The Sharks), 13 Deon van Rensburg (Leopards), 12 Morgan Newman (Western Province), 11 Bjorn Basson (Griquas), 10 Earl Rose (Golden Lions), 9 Jano Vermaak (Golden Lions), 8 Duane Vermeulen (Western Province), 7 Jean Deysel (Sharks), 6 Dewald Potgieter (c) (Blue Bulls), 5 Wilhelm Steenkamp (Blue Bulls), 4 Steven Sykes (Sharks), 3 Werner Kruger (Blue Bulls), 2 Bandise Maku (Blue Bulls), 1 Wian du Preez (Free State Cheetahs).

Replacements: 16 Tiaan Liebenberg (Western Province), 17 Pat Cilliers (Sharks), 18 Franco van der Merwe (Golden Lions), 19 Jacques Botes (Sharks), 20 Heini Adams (Blue Bulls), 21 Willem de Waal (Western Province), 22 Danwel Demas (Free State Cheetahs).

British and Irish Lions: 15 Keith Earls (Munster and Ireland), 14 Shane Williams (Ospreys and Wales), 13 Riki Flutey (Wasps and England), 12 Gordan D'Arcy (Leinster and Ireland), 11 Luke Fitzgerald (Leinster and Ireland), 10 Ronan O'Gara (Munster and Ireland, capt), 9 Harry Ellis (Leicester and England), 8 Andy Powell (Cardiff Blues and Wales), 7 Martyn Williams (Cardiff Blues and Wales), 6 Joe Worsley (Wasps and England), 5 Nathan Hines (Perpignan and Scotland), 4 Donncha O'Callaghan (Munster and Ireland), 3 John Hayes (Munster and Ireland), 2 Ross Ford (Edinburgh and Scotland), 1 Tim Payne (Wasps and England),

Replacements: 16 Lee Mears (Bath and England), 17 Phil Vickery (Wasps and England), 18 Simon Shaw (Wasps and England), 19 David Wallace (Munster and Ireland), 20 Mike Blair (Edinburgh and Scotland), 21 James Hook (Ospreys and Wales), 22 Ugo Monye (Harlequins and England).