Rugby Betting: British & Irish Lions v Royal XV

British Lions / Geoffrey Riddle / 29 May 2009 / Leave a Comment

As Ian McGeechan announces his team for the Lions first match of the tour, Geoffrey Riddle explains why Saturday's run-out at the Royal Bafokeng Sports Palace will provide big insights into how the Lions will operate in the Rainbow Nation as well as offering bettors some crucial pointers for profit.

The next few days are crucial to understanding how this year's Lions tour might pan out. On Friday evening a South Africa XV run out against a Namibian invitational XV in Windhoek, and on Saturday afternoon the Lions have their first outing in the Rainbow Nation. Both fixtures should offer a glimpse of the structures and philosophies that will be employed by both sides.

Then, there is also the small matter of the Super 14 final between the Bulls and the Chiefs, which should show whether big hope Morne Steyn can perform on the biggest stage he has encountered so far.

For those who haven't come across Steyn yet, he is the raw attacking fly-half who is likely to be playing in the No.10 shirt for the Springboks in the first Test on June 20. The Bulls stand-off is the highest scorer in the Super 14 this season, and punters should pay close attention to his penchant for the drop-goal - he's hit 10 over this season so far.

Lions coach Ian McGeechan has selected the strongest XV at his disposal for this clash against the Royal XV at the wonderfully named Royal Bakofeng Sports Palace - the players from Leinster, Leicester and Northampton were always unlikely to feature.

It is strange that the back three of Lee Bryne, Shane Williams and Tommy Bowe is the only settled combination used by McGeechan, although Martyn Williams and Andy Powell know each other well, as do Matthew Rees and Adam Jones from Wales.

The most interesting point for me about the team sheet, is that Mike Blair has made the starting line-up. The Scotland captain was a replacement for Thomas O'Leary and seems to have overtaken scrum-half competitor Mike Phillips in training, which sends out a powerful message to the rest of the squad. The same applies to the selection of Keith Earls at centre. If you train well enough, you'll make the starting line-up.

While we don't know much about the Lions, we know exactly how good the Bakofeng XV will be, because coach Chaka Willemse has named a team which comprises 11 players who starred in the Griquas' Vodacom Cup triumph. The Vodacom Cup is a third tier competition in South Africa, beneath the Super 14 and Currie Cup, which gives you a better idea of what level these guys are playing at.

Willemse's team consists of just five players with Super 14 experience, although one of the most important combinations - half-back - is covered by Sarel Pretorius and Naas Olivier, who turned out for the Cheetahs this year. Given that the Cheetahs came last in the Super 14, winning just two matches, it seems that the Lions are not going to be overly troubled.

But as punters, it is not enough to know who is simply going to win or lose the match, after all, the Lions are trading at as short as [1.13] for the 80 minutes. We want to have an idea of by how much the Lions are going to win by.

A look at the last two Lions tours can help shed some light on the matter. Four years ago, the Lions played Wellington, Otago and Auckland, the basis of the Super 14 franchises of the Hurricanes, Highlanders and Blues. Those teams finished fourth, eighth and seventh respectively, and were beaten 23-6, 30-19, and 17-13. On the 2001 tour, the Australian Super 12 franchises were in better shape, with the Brumbies having won the competition and the Reds finishing fourth. The Brumbies lost narrowly 30-28, while the Reds got punished 42-8, despite fielding a side that boasted players such as Daniel Herbert, Elton Flatley, Nathan Sharpe, and the heroic Toutai Kefu.

The Griquas are nowhere near as good as any of those sides and a thorough thrashing is a likely scenario. Based on the scorelines mentioned above, I believe the Lions should probably be favourites by something like 25-30 points.

And that is the interesting point about betting on the first game of a Lions tour, it really is a complete guess. Last time in 2005, before the Lions had even left Britain, they were chalked up as massive favourites against Argentina. The highstreet bookies guessed that Sir Clive's squad were around 40-point favourites against a Pumas side that had proved itself against some of the best international teams in the world. The spread traders even reported buyers at that level. The final score? 25-25.

So remember, these next few days are more about finding out little nuggets of information that could stand you in good stead in the days and weeks to come. Otherwise, you'll still be in the dark next week against the Golden Lions on Wednesday and the Cheetahs on Saturday, and the layers will clean up.