Lions Tour Betting: Western Province v British & Irish Lions

British Lions / Geoffrey Riddle / 12 June 2009 / Leave a Comment

This could be tight up to halftime, says Geoffrey Riddle, but expect the Lions to pull clear after the interval.

There has been a lot of speculation about the Lions' inability to contest what is fast becoming a furiously contested breakdown. Double-figure turnover numbers have been conceded in all four of the Lions' tour games so far, and no performance on the ground was more glaring that the shortcomings against the Super 14's form breakaway, Heinrich Brussow of the Cheetahs.

In that Bloemfontein encounter last Saturday, Brussow played like a man possessed, putting in more than double the amount of tackles as the next man on his team. He was also instrumental to the Lions' conceding 18 turnovers, their highest on tour in South Africa so far.

And the Lions face a formidable challenge once more this Saturday against Luke Watson of Western Province, a fetcher who has been mooted for the Springbok No.7 jersey for many years, but has been omitted for political reasons. What seems to be the problem for Ian McGeechan's back-row men, is that they haven't quite got accustomed to the ELV that allows the tackler to contest the breakdown.

Too often on Wednesday, against the Sharks, the Lions were making the tackles, but left the next man to contest the breakdown. Now that might not have been such an issue in the first Test next Saturday, but it is looking ever more likely that Schalk Burger will miss the first clash in Durban due to a torn calf. Burger is not a flanker in the fetcher mould, but if he does miss out, Springbok coach Peter de Villiers might be forced to draft in one of the many flankers queueing up to replace Burger, all of which are classic open-sides in the Brussow mould.

It is of the utmost importance therefore, that flanker Martyn Williams suppresses Watson in Saturday's clash against Western Province in Cape Town. If he does so, he may even win himself a Test place ahead of David Wallace. This is because proven ball-winning ability against one of South Africa's most robust No.7s will be of crucial significance to Ian McGeechan and Co. when they pick the Test side on Tuesday evening.

But on to this weekend's action. Western Province are [8.0] to repel their visitors, which is something that they have managed four times in the 16 encounters between these two teams down the years. Although the Cape Town-based province can boast 32 Currie Cup successes over the last 100 years or so, the Stormers, in their Super 14 guise, suffered horribly this season, finishing a lowly tenth. In last year's Currie Cup, Western Province finished fifth of eight which goes some way to explain why they receive around a 14-point start for this match. In 1997, they won South Africa's premier domestic competition, and were considered just six-point underdogs. They lost 38-21.

The hosts' challenge is centred around a free-flowing backline that boasts the Stormers top-tryscorer this season, Joe Pietersen, at full-back. Inside-centre Peter Grant alongside fly-half Willem De Waal, are both capable of kicking at goal, having shared the tee this season for the Stormers. With two such interchangeable playmakers behind the scrum, it seems likely that we'll see some classic counter-attacking tactics from the home side. They will rely on Watson to secure the turnovers, and hope that De Waal and Grant can utilise this possession out wide to their wingers Tonderai Chavhanga and the burly Rastafarian, Gcobani Bobo.

It is a game-plan that could chip away at the Lions, despite their heroic defensive display against the Sharks in midweek, but one that also could make the first half a low-scoring encounter as the Lions aim to soak up the early pressure.

Western Province have probably the most ardent following in the Rainbow Nation, so armchair viewers are unlikely to witness the empty stadiums that have been a feature of the past four games. As a result, the Lions are going to endure a fearsome onslaught during the opening 40 minutes, and one which should direct punters into backing the hosts on the half-time handicap.

In midweek, Tony Calvin rightly highlighted that the Lions were a classic back-to-lay trade. A look at the the last 12 tour games indicates that, as a general principle, it is best to approach tour matches in this way, as home sides unleash a furious opening half, only to be outclassed as the match progresses.