British Lions / Geoffrey Riddle / 19 May 2009 / Leave a comment

Historically, Lions tours are unsuccessful so you can see why the hosts are favourites to win the Test series. However, injuries to key Spring Boks' personnel and changes to the rules makes for a more level playing field than the market suggests. Geoffrey Riddle reports from Pennyhill Park.

The British and Irish Lions gathered for the first time at Pennyhill Park yesterday, and as their tour manager, Gerald Davies, said: "The show is finally on the road." Even with two European finals this week, it is difficult to forget that the Lions leave for South Africa on Sunday, and it brings sharply into focus the tour that we have all been waiting for.

The betting for the Test series is interesting, because historically, Lions tours are unsuccessful. The four victories that stand out are Ian McGeechan's dual successes in 1997 against South Africa, and the 1989 win under skipper Finlay Calder in 1989. Syd Millar and Willie-John McBride's astonishing clean sweep against the Springboks is right up there with Carwyn James's incredible 2-1 victory over the All Blacks in 1971, and that really is about it, unless you want to go back earlier than 1900.

So it is quite easy to see why the Springboks trade at [1.44] with the Lions at [3.4], especially with the two latter Tests in the schedule taking place at altitude. But while the papers will be stuffed full of stories this morning about how Alan Quinlan and Euan Murray missed out on yesterday's official team photograph, only the most clued up punters will be aware that this series is set to be played without three of the most controversial ELVs. As of this weekend, the maul will be reinstated by the IRB, a lineout must have the same number of players in it, and all of those dubious freekicks that you may have seen doled out like confetti in the Super 14 will be a thing of the past.

The importance of this should not be under-estimated. Nor should the fact that Springbok coach Peter de Villiers is missing World-Cup winning fly-half Butch James. Or that his replacement on the November tour, Ruan Pienaar, missed most of his Super 14 campaign. Pienaar injured himself again this weekend, spraining ankle ligaments, and he faces a three to four week lay-off. When you throw in the fact that fullback Conrad Jantjes has broken his leg and Francois Steyn has injured his knee, the picture painted is not a good one for South African rugby fans.

I don't suppose for a minute that these things alone will contribute to a Springbok defeat in the Test series. But remembering how to play rugby with those laws reinstated, and with quite possibly a third-choice No.10 in Morne Steyn of the Bulls in tow, the playing field will be levelled a lot more than most people may imagine. The Springboks are not the settled side that they were in 2007, and that could offer value for those who want to find some way of opposing them.

The series correct score is an interesting way to get involved in the action, and although it is always the most fiercely contested of all, the first Test provides the Lions with their best chance of success. In the last eight years, South Africa have played 10 games in Durban, the scene of the first Test, and won six of them. In contrast, Loftus Versfeld, in Pretoria, which hosts the second Test, and Ellis Park, in Johannesburg, where the series ends, have witnessed one loss each from 16 fixtures in the same time frame. If stats are your thing, then you are realistically looking at a 2-1 win for the Springboks, which is surprisingly the second-favourite at [2.9]. A South African clean sweep heads the market at [2.44], which has occurred four times in the 12 visits that the Lions have made to the Rainbow Nation since Bill MacLagan lead the first foray in 1891.

But where punters can have the most excitement, however, is in the speciality markets that Betfair have set up. The starting XV is a fascinating betting heat, and is the definitive way to end all arguments about everyone's Lions Test side. Although there is no liquidity in these markets at all at the moment, hopefully when the tour gets going this will change.

Then I'll be able to back Ronan O'Gara to take the fly-half jersey over Stephen Jones, back the combative Harry Ellis over the more languid Mike Phillips, and take Sheridan, Flannery and Murray over any other front-row combination. Anyone keen to lay those?

Lions record in South Africa in non-tests and Tests