My word, there is a formula

Poker Web Watch / Dave Allan / 15 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

Most poker players will declare that there is more to the game (or indeed sport depending on your viewpoint) than just luck as many would have you believe, but there appears to be a growing change in official eyes, writes Rob Eddy.

Not so long ago, Russia recently decided that poker should be classed as a sport in the country, rather than a game of chance. They may well be onto something considering the performance of their players Ivan Demidov and Stanislav Alekhin (Flickr link), who finished third and second respectively in the recent World Series of Poker Europe, while the former is also preparing himself for the final table of the WSOP Main Event in Las Vegas.

The Czech Republic then decided to review its classification and now it appears the debate has been re-opened in Holland - and there is even a formula to prove the point.

Two professors, Ben van der Genugten (probability and mathematical statistics) and Peter Borm (mathematics and game theory), came up with a rather simple formula, which determines a skill value or skill ratio. The formula being:-

Skill = Learning Effect / (Learning Effect + Chance Effect)

According to their formula, the learning effect is the difference in the outcome of a game between an optimum player and a beginner. The result quantifies skill and the smaller the role chance plays in a game, the higher the skill value.

A game of total chance, such as roulette, has a 'skill rating' of zero, while a game of pure skill would have a 'skill value' of 1, and Van der Genugten has now openly criticised the official position as poker, under the formula, has a skill rating of 0.4.

This figure may not seem like a lot but it actually is significantly higher than games that have been classed as games of skill, such as fantasy sports games (0.3), and is closer to chess or bridge.

However, poker is not yet classed as a game of skill and the calls are growing to have its case re-examined, particularly as Van der Genugten has appeared as an expert witness in a number of cases in court.

Whether or not it is reclassified remains to be seen but I am sure this is by no means the end of the debate.