A No-limit Hold'em experiment
Pud's Poker Progress
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Matthew Pitt /
06 July 2009 /
10
When it comes to poker I am what some would call an underachiever. I'm like one of those youth team footballers that looks like they are going to be the next Premiership star but they they disappear off the radar and end up playing for Brentford reserves.
I am going to play 10,000 hands of NL Hold'em at each of the available stakes, starting at $0.02/$0.04 and moving up when I have played 10,000 hands or more and have at least 20 buy-ins for the next highest stake.
One of the main reasons for this is I chop and change what I am going to play is when the inevitable variance hits me I lose all confidence, think I am a donkey and go try another discipline. I've always said I have the ability to make a living from this game, I just need to sort out the mental side though as this is severely lacking.
I know I am the king of setting challenges and then ditching them when the going gets bad but I am going to prove to myself, and any doubters, that I can stick to something and grind out the results. I've had a bit of inspiration for this from Clarkatroid who recently posted a graph of his play over the last 1,000,000 hands. Yes one million hands! The thread can be found here.
I'm sure you'll agree the graph looks amazing, especially when you consider he had a 300-400k hand break-even stretch, unreal! Whilst I will not be playing anywhere near one million hands, I am going to grind out the cash games on Betfair and show that I am a winning player.
To do this I am going to play 10,000 hands of NL Hold'em at each of the available stakes, starting at $0.02/$0.04 and moving up when I have played 10,000 hands or more and have at least 20 buy-ins for the next highest stake.
I'll probably play a maximum of four tables and I'll also be doing this without the use of a HUD for a couple of reasons. The first is I want to improve my observation at the tables and the second is mine doesn't actually work on Betfair because my graphics card is crap!
I'm hoping that by the end of the year I will have progressed from NL4 all the way to NL100 although I would be made up if I managed to get to NL200 or above. By playing at least 10,000 hands at each limit, I should be able to show the potential variance involved in cash games but also that I am a winning, or losing, player over a semi-meaningful sample size.
I see plenty of people on forums who say beating the micro stakes is impossible due to the really bad players and the fact the rake is high in proportion to the pot sizes but I think the micro stakes are more than beatable and if I can't beat bad players then what chance do I stand against good players?
I've estimated that each block of 10,000 hands should take me around 40 hours playing time if I manage to four table effectively so probably one calendar month at a time. I have a feeling I'll hammer the hours whilst playing NL4 just so I can get out of it because the potential earnings are tiny and the players will be so bad it will be a frustrating experience.
Keep your eye out for YorkyPuds on a micro-stakes table near you in the coming months!
That's all for now. As always, thanks for reading and best of luck at the tables!
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Rossi | 06 July 2009
Mate
Deja vue again mate, join the club...again. We both must have the same poker disease!!!
STICK TO IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GL
havin_a_laff | 06 July 2009
Hi Pudd. Good luck with your goals. TBH I would start at 10NL or 4/5 at a push. At 10 they are at least trying to play properly. you are right to stick to 4 tables max and use your HUD. Even 2 or 3 tables might be better when starting out. I've just played quite quite a few hands on FT at 10NL and it's a challenge! I moved to 25 a few weeks ago and the standard is slightly better. My feeling is that you can nit it up - say 16/11/2 - something like that - and just be patient. Problem is it won't work at higher levels. Believe it or not there is plenty of isolating 3-betting and blind defence at 10/25. Plenty of aggro guys. A good player can make money at micros but won't necessarily be equipped to play higher levels (100+) where if you are not solid they will take one look at your stats and run over you in double quick time (so I understand).
you probably don't - but if you need any tips drop me a note. I have had a few sweat sessions with some good players so might have learned something.
James Atkin | 06 July 2009
"One of the main reasons for this is I chop and change what I am going to play is when the inevitable variance hits me I lose all confidence, I think"
That's so profound to me, I am exactly the same. I really need to work on this.
Best of luck with the new plan!
Gavin | 06 July 2009
Good luck with your challenge mate.
Keep us updated with the peaks and troughs :)
havin_a_laff | 06 July 2009
Nah! I just realised that 16% vpip is just too tight at 6-max. The guys playing 16% are generally easy to play.
fenix35 | 06 July 2009
Good luck dude, I like doing challenges like this myself. I'm doing something similar at 25c/50c plo but sort of failing as after 4000 hands im over 10 buyins down lol!
pgchips | 07 July 2009
Hi Pud,
Thanks for stopping by again, I appreciate the comments. : )
And you know I love a good challenge, Pud, so I wish you luck with it and I shall follow your progress with interest.
All the best,
Pg.
SlickHook | 07 July 2009
Hey Pud!! Nice plan, sounds like a good way to practice some sound bankroll management while really grinding it out.
I read about your motorcycle accident. That's an unusual way of being introduced to online poker!
LuckyStraights | 08 July 2009
This sounds like a really cool challenge actually, best of luck with it.
I'm at 25nl now, e-mail me your player name if you want and I'll keep an eye out for you.
For the mental stuff there is a really good video series on DC that might help called "Path to Poker Enlightenment" with Tommy Angelo. I only have the first 2 parts unfortunately as it wasn't finished during my trial period,but I expect it to be finished now if you sign up for a free trial you could grab that and a bunch of other stuff that will help you along the way.
Yorkshire Pud | 08 July 2009
Thanks for the comments everyone, much appreciated.
I've not had chance to start playing properly due to work commitments but will be grinding away over the next few days and should hopefully have played a few thousand hands by the weekend.