The Cincinnati Kid and bluffing
Poker Strategy
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Marcus Bateman /
30 December 2009 /
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'That's what it's all about isn't it? Making the wrong move at the right time.'
This is one of the final lines of the great poker movie 'The Cincinnati Kid'. Edward G Robinso raises in a position where he is clearly behind, but ends up making a straight flush to bust the young Steve McQueen, and when the dealer quizzes his play, that line is his response.
Although this hand is extremely unrealistic, this line is actually extremely relevant to poker - particularly to no limit variants. It is pretty obvious that you need to bluff a certain number of hands in poker in order to keep your opponent on their toes, but when and where you make bluffs is what will make you a winning or losing player in the long run.
In this hand (see Youtube video above) Edward G Robinson chooses a situation to bluff where he knows he is currently behind, but with a hand that has the prospect of becoming a monster if he hits it. He is picking a situation where although he is making the wrong move as the hand currently stands (with him up against a pair showing), but at a very good time, as if he hits his hand he will be able to win a big bet on fifth street, and be able to fold if his hand misses.
His opponent is in the unenviable position of probably having to face a big bet at the end of the hand with just a pair or two pair against a very dangerous board (as it is, Steve McQueen hits his full house and it turns into one of the biggest coolers of all time, but most of the time the hand would not play out that way). As a result, these sort of situations are good spots to bluff in poker, as they are the ones force your opponents into very difficult choices with their marginal hands. This is as true with a solid draw in hold'em as it is in the now antiquated game of five card stud, and applies to similar spots in nearly all forms of poker.
Bluffing is not just about making the wrong move (which is in essence what bluffing is), but also about picking spots where it is the right time to do it. In this case the old man picks a great time to semi bluff, making Steve McQueen go on the back foot and face a tricky situation (as well as tricky future situations), all the while holding a hand that has a slim chance of actually becoming the best hand and winning a monster pot. His bluff effectively has two chances at winning, and it is moves like this which really add up over the long run.
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