Poker Strategy / Short-Stacked Shamus / 06 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

You've noticed it, I'm sure. Players in later stages of multi-table tournaments are no longer raising three times the big blind -- at one time a universal standard, it seemed -- often preferring instead to raise 2.5x or 2.2x or even the minimum of twice the big blind. What is the thinking behind opening with smaller preflop raises late in MTTs?

From an historical perspective, it is interesting to consider how strategies have changed over recent years.

Many forget that tournament poker is a relatively recent phenomenon. It was the 1970s and 1980s before tourneys really came onto the scene at all, and it wasn't until after the "boom" of the 2000s that they became popular. For a long time, then, tournament strategy had yet to distinguish itself too greatly from the strategies employed in regular ring games.

For example, since smallish preflop opening raises in cash games tended to be less than effective, they weren't employed as often in tournaments, either. But as tourneys became more popular and tournament strategy began to advance, more and more players began to realize that tournament poker presents unique variables one needs to account for at the tables, with the increasing blinds and antes being one of the most important.

That said, it still wasn't until just a few years ago that we started to see the less-than-3x preflop raise become a much-used strategy in MTTs, especially during the "endgame" of tourneys. Take a look at any final table at a major event today -- live or online -- and you'll see players routinely opening for 2x or just a little more.

Just to illustrate the shift in strategy, consider the first 30 hands of the 2007 WSOP Main Event final table and compare them to the first 30 hands at the 2010 WSOP ME final table from last November.

First, the 2007 WSOP ME final table. Discounting the two hands in which the table's short stack Alex Kravchenko open-shoved his 4 million-plus chip stack, the average opening raise during that initial stretch was a little over 3.57 times the big blind. Even if we eliminate Jerry Yang's frequent oversized opens during those hands -- remember that? -- the other players were still averaging raises of about 2.94 times the big blind, with a 720k raise (with the blinds 120k/240k) being a typical starter.

In 2010 things went a little differently. Jason Senti and Soi Nguyen did some all-in shoving of their short stacks early on during the first 30 hands there. But in the other 26 hands the average preflop opening raise was exactly 2.3x the big blind (1.15 million with blinds of 250k/500k). In fact, no one opened with a raise of more than 1.325 million (2.65x) in any of those hands.

But anyone who has been playing MTTs over recent years doesn't need evidence to know about this trend. Raising 3x or more at the end of a tourney -- especially at the final table -- is no longer the "standard" at the end of tournaments. In fact, it's unusual.

So what is the thinking behind this trend? Why are players opening for 2x or 2.2x at the end of tournaments?

There are at least three good reasons.

(1) A raise is a raise is a raise

The fact is, if you've picked a good spot to open with a raise, it often will have a similar effect whether you raise 2x or 3x or more. In other words, there are many situations in which your fold equity isn't going to be affected that much by reducing your preflop raise amount.

It remains hard for opponents to call even a minimum-raise from out of position (with bad hands, with vulnerable stack sizes, etc.), particularly during the late stage of a tournament. Thus a small raise can often accomplish all of the things a larger raise might with less risk.

(2) Shallow stacks

One reason why small raises can work as well as big ones late in tourneys is the fact that the stacks are usually relatively less deep than they are early on. Shrinking stacks -- and increasing payouts -- also encourage some to play a tighter game at tourney's end, even if doing so isn't necessarily recommended.

Also, when your stack dips down to 30 big blinds and below, a raise of 3x or more suddenly represents significant percentage of what you have left, thus reducing your options should the hand continue thereafter. Another reason for a smaller preflop raise.

(3) The freedom to fold

Finally, if you only raise in situations in which a subsequent reraise is desirable, you likely aren't raising enough. The fact is, you probably should be open-raising with less-than-premium hands from time to time, to steal the blinds and antes as well as to maintain an image that ensures you'll get action when you do pick up hands.

All of which is to say, you are going to have to fold to reraises before the flop from time to time. (If you can't, that's another problem.) And not only is it less expensive to fold after making smaller preflop raises, it is psychologically easier to do so as well.

(Speaking of three-bets, another relatively recent trend in MTTs is an increase in three-betting before the flop, which some have speculated is something that either caused or was caused by the gradual reduction in size of preflop raises. Kind of a chicken-or-the-egg situation, perhaps.)

There are other reasons for opening with smaller raises in the later stages of MTTs, an important one being the fact that once the antes are introduced, you stand to profit even more with your steal attempts if you can pull them off with smaller preflop raises.

In any case, it's an option worth keeping in mind -- both for yourself and as you consider what others might be thinking late in tourneys with those small preflop opening raises.

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