Playing Small Pocket Pairs

Poker Strategy / Short-Stacked Shamus / 10 November 2011 / Leave a Comment

Just calling a raise with a small pocket pair is likely going to result in a familiar sequence: (1) an unfavorable flop; (2) you checking and your opponent c-betting; (3) you folding.

Being dealt a small pocket pair in no-limit hold'em is like receiving one of those fortune cookies containing a vague promise that something good may happen in the near future. You know, something about being "prepared to accept a wondrous opportunity" or the like. It even comes with a lucky number, one which you're hoping will subsequently appear on the flop as well.

Novice players become overly excited by such possibilities, tending to overplay their modest-but-made hands before the flop, thereby often bringing misfortune or even ruin once the community cards are dealt. But most of us eventually come to realize that being dealt a small pair isn't necessarily reason for rejoicing, hardly an unambiguous guarantee that good fortune awaits.

The fact is, small pocket pairs -- by which we generally mean pairs from 6-6 down to 2-2 -- almost always have to improve post-flop in order to be playable thereafter. The chance of flopping of set or better is 11.76% -- about once every 8.5 times you try. Finding some other favorable flop (say, giving you four to a straight) doesn't add much of significance to those odds, either.

There are situations in no-limit hold'em, of course, when you will be willing to make a significant commitment before the flop with a small pair, such as when you are severely short-stacked in a tournament or are starting a hand in a cash game with a stack that is too small to make limping or making a standard raise reasonable options. But in just about every other circumstance, you really shouldn't be too eager to make or call raises (or reraises) with your small pair.

Even in cases when you believe it is a good chance a player has raised preflop with a mediocre hand, being dealt a humble pair of sixes still doesn't afford you the necessary strength to do much in response.

Say you pick up that 6-6 in the big blind and are facing a standard blind-steal attempt from the button. Knowing that your opponent can have essentially any two cards, you are reasonably certain that your pair likely beats whatever he's holding at this point. You know the odds of him starting with a better pocket pair (i.e., 7-7 or higher) are slim -- like about 1 in 25, actually. In fact, speaking in purely theoretical terms, against any random hand your sixes rate to finish best a little over 63% of the time (according to PokerStove).

But this is practice, not theory. To win anything, you have to play your hand -- from out of position, no less. Sure, you might be a favorite to be best after those three post-flop streets, but you're going to have to negotiate an opponent playing back at you with positional advantage to get there.

You can reraise if you think you'll get a fold. In fact, reraising is almost certainly the best option if you do choose to play your hand, since just calling a raise here is likely going to result in a familiar sequence: (1) an unfavorable flop; (2) you checking and your opponent c-betting; (3) you folding.

In other words, while picking up your small pair might well translate into your being "prepared to accept a wondrous opportunity," you should also be prepared to accept the possibility that you aren't going to be ending the hand with the dealer pushing a stack of chips your way.

That said, small pocket pairs can be played profitably. Ideally, you want to get to that flop with a minimum of fuss, meaning committing as little as possible preflop to do so. If you are in a passive game and can get away with limping to see a flop, a small pocket pair is a great hand with which to do so. You can even call raises (especially with position) if you believe the chances of getting paid off handsomely are good should you flop a set or better.

One rule of thumb often passed around when considering whether to call a preflop raise with a small pair is to compare the chances of hitting a favorable flop to stack sizes. Since you will only flop a set or better once every 8.5 times, it is important that earn something better than 8.5 times your investment in order to call.

Some suggest simply multiplying the raise by 10 and comparing effective stacks to that number. For example, say you are in a $1/$2 game and you have 5-5 and are deciding whether to call a raise to $8 to see a flop. To call the raise, you want both yourself and your opponent to have $80 or more behind, money you hope to claim should the flop bring a five. If you or your opponent have considerably less than that, you really can't win enough to justify calling and "set mining."

Also worth thinking about here -- as always -- is the relative skill level of your opponent. Will he pay you off if you hit your set? Or is he savvy enough to avoid losing too much to you without having made a big, second-best hand himself? You usually want to play more hands versus weaker opponents if possible, an idea that applies to this situation as much as any.

In any case, do proceed carefully when playing those small pocket pairs. Or, to put it another way, "Be cautious of wandering in the darkness."

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