On Open-Shoving from the Small Blind Late in Tournaments

Poker Strategy / Short-Stacked Shamus / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Some players seem especially ready to push all in from the small blind when the table folds to them.

From where comes this idea to open-shove from the small blind, which some players seem especially ready to do even with less than premium hands? And for those of us who’ve seen others making the play but haven’t thought about doing it ourselves, should we?

If you play a lot of sit-n-gos or multi-table tournaments, you've probably seen it -- the small-blind open-shove. Particularly late in tourneys when the stacks become relatively shallow, you'll see players sometimes opting to push all in from the small blind after the table folds around, particularly if the SB has the BB covered. For the big blind to call the raise and risk his tournament life obviously requires a strong hand, and strong hands don't come that often, so the BB will often fold to the shove.

From where comes this idea, though, to open-shove from the small blind, which some players seem especially ready to do even with less than premium hands? And for those of us who've seen others making the play but haven't thought about doing it ourselves, should we?

To address the first question, the idea behind, say, open-pushing a stack of 20 big blinds from the small blind at a final table with a hand like Kd-9c is often primarily a math-based decision.

It's a play suggested in part by Dan Harrington's famous "zone system." In Harrington on Hold'em Volume II: The Endgame (2005), Harrington explains how the relative urgency to open-shove your stack goes up once you've dropped into the "yellow zone" (with an "M" of 10-20) or below.

More recent experiments with "ICM" -- the "independent chip model" which helps one figure out how to determine the value of one's chip stack by relating it to the remaining prize pool -- and other calculations have introduced variations on Harrington's idea, however, that have had further influence on some tourney players, especially in online poker.

In our scenario, our player holding Kd-9c in the small blind recognizes he has what is theoretically-speaking an above-average starting hand. That is, having perhaps run the calculations in PokerStove or other simulators, he knows that against a completely random hand Kd-9c rates to win by the showdown about 57% of the time. He also knows that by shoving he makes it hard for an opponent to call with most hands, likely all but the very top of his range. By pushing, then, he stands to win before the flop a lot of the time. (Shoving also, of course, erases the BB's positional advantage post-flop.)

What does the small blind get when for shoving and forcing the big blind to fold? Well, he gets to pull back his small blind, he wins the big blind, and he also wins the antes which at a full table often add up to another big blind. So from 20 BBs he moves to 22 BBs, a 5% increase to his stack. A relatively small reward, but it does give him another orbit's worth of antes and blinds to contribute, thus helping extend his tourney life and perhaps move up in the pay schedule.

There are other factors -- especially the SB's skill level relative to the rest of the table -- that should be considered before making that decision to open-push with Kd-9c. But you can see how the idea of making the play often originates in an understanding of starting hand values and math-based arguments.

But should you really be open-shoving a stack of 20 BBs from the small blind with Kd-9c, a hand that in most other spots you'd open-fold? Some brilliant poker minds have made strong arguments in favor of the play. Meanwhile, other equally smart folks have brought up ideas against doing so, including the following.

Fooled By Randomness

One argument against the play has to do with the fact that the likelihood of the big blind waking up with a calling hand goes up slightly after an entire table of players have folded. Chances are the folders didn't have strong hands themselves, which in turn means the chance of the big blind having, say, an ace in his hand or some other strong holding has gone up just a bit. In other words, it isn't necessarily correct to think you are playing your Kd-9c against a totally random hand against which PokerStove suggests you are a 57% favorite.

Risk Versus Reward

Secondly, even if you have the big blind covered with your 20-big blind stack, losing and doubling him up can still be catastrophic if it means losing half your stack or more. Say your opponent who has but 13 BBs calls your shove and you lose. Now you're the one approaching Harrington's "red zone" and praying for a hand with which to double up. In other words, don't overestimate the significance of having an opponent barely covered, since his risk of busting isn't really that much different from the risk you're taking to be crippled (and likely bust soon thereafter).

Raising Rather Than Shoving

Finally, before shoving all in from the SB in this spot you might consider whether a 3x raise might win you the same amount of chips with less risk to your stack. This line, of course, depends a lot on how the player sitting to your left has been playing. Has he regularly failed to defend his big blind? Has he obviously turtled up in the hopes of outlasting another player or two to improve his cash? Depending on his stack size, a simple raise may still essentially force your opponent to the same all-in-or-fold decision -- i.e., he probably won't just call and commit 20-25% of his 13-BB stack -- with much less risk to you.

Indeed, that last point reminds us that even if a thorough knowledge of poker math can give you a meaningful edge, knowing your opponents and reading others' tendencies can often have as much or more to do with making sound decisions at the table. In other words, when the table folds to you in the small blind, don't let the math of the situation take over your thinking to the point that you fail to consider other, important factors before making that shove.

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