The expectation of winning
No Limit Holdem
/
Marcus Bateman /
08 December 2009 /
Leave a Comment
This phenomenon has led to more bad calls than any other in poker - the simple expectation of winning a hand. When we look down at aces or kings, or when we flop a set, our brain immediately starts behaving as if we have already won a big pot. This misjudgment of our minds is very damaging, as it clouds our judgment later on in the hand, as our brain struggles to reconcile this expectation of winning with the reality of the hand.
Imagine you look down at black aces and a raise in front of you. You re-raise, and your brain is already starting to believe that it is going to win . The opponent calls and the flop comes down Ad 5c 4h. You have top set! Now your brain really starts to think that you can't lose. You bet and your opponent calls. The turn comes the 6h. A scare card for sure, but your mind is still convinced you will win. You bet out again and get called. The river comes the 7h. Your opponent goes all in.
Your brain is now really struggling to reconcile its previous state - that of you winning the hand - with the actual reality of the situation, where you should certainly be strongly considering folding. In this situation most players tend to end up calling big bets, simply because their mind refuses to reconsider its position and leads to an immense clouding of judgment, which ultimately leads to the player making a wrong decision.
Poker is a game where you frequently have to reevaluate situations drastically - no matter how strong your hand appeared at one point. The expectation of winning is a huge force in poker, and one that can lose you a fortune if not understood and adapted to. No matter how good the situation was before, if your hand is probably no good at this point, you have to be able to lay it down and move on.
Just like life, poker is frequently unfair and unreliable. Building expectations of winning are extremely dangerous in poker, as they are frequently dashed by the variance of the game. Being able to cope with these events without going on tilt and losing more than you should is what separates good players from bad, and coping with the expectation of winning aids this greatly.
Been Winning? What to do next
Staying in Good Games
Read More Poker
The Importance of Suitedness in No-Limit Hold'em
One debate that frequently arises in discussions of no-limit hold'em strategy concerns the relative importance of suitedness. For many, when faced with a marginal decision over whether or not to play a hand, having two suited cards will tip the...
Using Blockers in Hold'em and PLO
We're all focused on the NFL playoffs here in the U.S. right now, what with the Super Bowl being just a few weeks away. The playoffs are a time when individual players often emerge as stars. However, football remains a...
A New Year, and a New Idea for Tracking Poker Results
For poker players, the start of a new year often occasions at least a couple of familiar ideas. Like everyone else, poker players are inspired to make resolutions when the calendar turns to January 1, perhaps even listing certain habits...
Telling The Story Of A Bluff
One of the most fun, exciting and exhilarating moves a poker player can make at their table is a bluff. Anyone who tells you differently is simply wrong. The very act of bluffing goes against two key principles we are...
