As he relates in the book, Williams has been playing online poker since shortly after the "boom" in 2003 -- first for play money, then at the microstakes where he was successful enough to start playing full-time starting in 2007. Since then Williams has played over six million hands of online poker, including a significant number of hands of NL2 and NL5 where he's won tens of thousands a few dollars at a time. He's also become a coach at the instructional site DragTheBar where he has created videos and offered instruction mostly directed toward the low and microstakes.

Crushing the Microstakes is the product of that vast experience, introduced by Williams as "a complete guide" to full-ring NL2 and NL5 created "from the playbook in my head" he has developed through trial-and-error -- or, rather, mostly trial-and-success -- over those many hands.

The micros -- passive, inattentive, exploitable

The book begins with a general intro to playing microstakes real money games online, with some general observations about the quality of play one often finds at NL2 and NL5. The stakes have much in common, both being populated with many inexperienced and/or poor players, with NL2 occasionally distinguishing itself as "the last bastion of completely insane play."

Williams divides player types at the micros into three categories: the regs (including nits and tight-aggressive players); SLPs or semi-loose passives; and the fish. He recognizes that one occasionally might encounter a competent LAG (loose-aggressive) at the microstakes, but correctly notes how they tend to be the exception rather than the norm -- one of many differences between the NL2/NL5 games and what one finds after moving up in stakes.

Indeed, a few themes emerge early on in Crushing the Microstakes and form the basis of much of the advice Williams provides, including noting the overwhelming prevalence of passive play, the general lack of attention being paid to table image or betting patterns, and the often easily-identifiable styles and patterns exhibited by others.

With regard to the latter, Williams recommends the use of HUDs/tracking software such as Hold'em Manager or Poker Tracker, particularly if one intends to multi-table or play high volume -- kind of a given for those hoping to earn significant amounts when playing for these stakes. Williams offers general advice about setting up one's HUD, although directs the reader to his blog for more detailed discussion of the subject.

Taking the initiative

Following that introductory section, Williams notes how one's general approach should involve taking the initiative whenever possible -- key versus the large population of passive players -- and recognizing the importance of position when doing so. Then comes more specific advice about preflop play, with recommendations of starting hands that take into account positional advantage.

While some of this discussion may sound like what one finds in other no-limit hold'em strategy texts, Williams here and elsewhere adds caveats and other reminders that when it comes to NL2 and NL5, there are certain aspects of the game that are wholly unique and must be taken into account if one wants to maximize profitability.

One such aspect is the unwillingness of many passive players -- especially fish but also many regs -- to fold hands preflop. Thus while a standard PF raise of 3x-5x may make sense with most raising hands at higher limits, when the blinds are at 0.01/0.02 there are times when a larger PF raise is in order, such as when one has a premium hand like AA or KK. Such thinking can hold true after the flop as well, where Williams encourages the reader to bet big with strong hands (e.g., two pair or better), as slowplaying or other fancy plays rarely accomplish more than to minimize one's gains.

Williams' advice for preflop play follows those earlier stated guidelines to take the initiative (e.g., 3-betting) and avoid the same passive play others so frequently demonstrate (e.g., calling others' raises/reraises) while always taking position into account as well.

Win big, lose small

Williams then moves on to discuss postflop play, dividing the discussion into sections devoted to the flop, turn, and river.

Williams characterizes the flop as the most important street at the microstakes. It is here that come discussions of what to consider when c-betting (or not) as well as how to respond when opponents bet or raise flops. Again, the general tenor of his advice is to avoid fancy play, building big pots with strong hands and keeping pots small or folding otherwise. "At the micros especially I would advocate that you try to keep all of your decisions as simple as possible," writes Williams.

The turn Williams actually characterizes as "the easiest street to play in hold'em," one of many observations that necessarily need to be understood within the context of the passive environment of the micros where players' actions are infrequently deceptive. Players at the micros generally do not bet or raise without strong hands from the turn onward, thus does Williams recommend controlling the pot with one-pair hands or getting out with less if met with such aggression.

The river Williams also characterizes as relatively straightforward, where we bet big with big hands, value bet or call with medium-strength hands, and avoid making calls of big bets which are rarely going to be bluffs at these stakes. Meanwhile, he encourages us to recognize how the fish often will call big river bets given their disinclination to fold and frequent skepticism regarding others' hands.

Clear, concrete advice

The last section of the book collects various concepts and topics of special significance to microstakes games, including recognizing the importance of "extraction" or "getting the absolute maximum value out of your good to great hands," keeping decisions simple, and understanding why bluffing is generally not worth trying at these stakes. Williams also offers instructions for understanding "fish psychology," the pros and cons of raising draws, what to do against maniacs, how to approach multi-way limped pots, and dealing with tilt.

As a whole, the book provides a terrific primer for the novice player who has some experience and perhaps even has spent time reading other strategy books or the forums but hasn't figured out how to apply those ideas to the NL2 or NL5 game he or she is playing. And Williams communicates his ideas clearly throughout, making the read much less arduous than one sometimes encounters in a typical strategy book.

Williams recognizes how for many the micros are going to represent a stepping stone, a temporary stop where one works on "developing the solid fundamentals that will take your game to the next level."

That said, I think there are a lot of players -- even winning players -- who are content with remaining amid the low-risk environment of the micros, and for them Williams has provided a book worth consulting repeatedly for practical, concrete advice to ensure that win graph continues to rise, slowly and steadily.

Click here for information about how to buy Crushing the Microstakes. Also worth checking out is Nathan Williams' blog where one can also find years' worth of posts containing other helpful advice for those playing low and microstakes hold'em.

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Thor has given so much to the poker community and Betfair Poker would like to help out as much as possible. This Thursday February 9 we are having a charity tournament where the winner can win an added package to a BF Poker Live event of their choice. $1 dollar will go towards the prize pool whilst the $10 tournament fee will go directly to his fund. Betfair will double all tournament fees collected up to $2,500

Asko Heiskanen Betfair Global Poker Marketing Manger said "We are delighted to help out Thor at this time. I hope other operators across the industry join us to raise as much money and awareness as possible for one of pokers most well-loved players"

Thor Hansen Charity Tournament

Date: Thursday February 9th

Prizepool: A normal cash pay-out table and the winner of the tournament wins added $1,400 Betfair Poker Live package (no cash alternatives offered).

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Guichard held a slight lead over Kursevich when play began among the final eight on Monday. Guichard sat with just under 6 million chips, while Kursevich was nearby with 5.67 million. Meanwhile Mick Graydon was the table's short-stack with just under 1 million.

Graydon would chip up a little in the early going, but had fallen back down around the 1 million-chip mark when he pushed all in with Ac-9h only to run into Guichard's Ad-Kc. The board ran out 10s-4s-3c-Qd-7c, and the Irishman was out eighth.

Guichard continued to push out further ahead of the pack, nearing 8 million while Kursevich fell back to average-stack status. Then Vuong Than Trong knocked out Luca Pagano in seventh when the latter's Ac-Js failed to improve versus Trong's 9s-9h. That made seven EPT final tables for Pagano without a win, with his exit leaving six players to continue the battle.

Olivier Rogez was the next to go in sixth. Having folded down to a super-short stack of just one big blind or so, he was soon all in with Jh-3c against two players, one of whom -- Guichard -- bet out the other on a nine-high flop to turn over Kh-Kc, and two cards later Rogez was out.

The remaining five played on, then just before the dinner break Bruno Jais opened with a raise to 450,000 (blinds 100,000/200,000), then Trong reraised to 1.05 million and Jais called. The flop came 9s-8h-6c and Jais shoved his remaining 2 million or so with Ah-Qs, getting a quick call from Trong with Kc-Kd. A queen fell on the turn, but the river was the 5s and Jais was out.

That hand pushed Trong out in front, meaning he'd return from dinner with nearly 11 million, with Kursevich having moved up into second with 8.83 million. Guichard was third with 4.75 million and Yorane Kerignard last with a little over 2.4 million.

Shortly after the break, Kursevich would score a huge double-up through Trong when his Ks-Kd held up against Trong's Ah-Qc. Kerignard went out in fourth shortly after that when his Qs-9s failed against Kursevich's Kc-Js, and suddenly Kursevich had a commanding lead with three left.

Kursevich would continue to push, and soon had Trong all in with Kd-10c before the flop against his Ac-Jc. The five community cards came 9s-8h-5s-7d-9c, and they were down to two.

Kursevich started heads-up play with a massive lead with 23.145 million to Guichard's 3.365 million. Guichard swiftly closed the gap, however, and was only a couple of million behind Kursevich when the tourney's dramatic climax occurred.

With the blinds 125,000/250,000, Kursevich opened for 500,000 from the button, Guichard reraised to 1.25 million, and Kursevich called. The flop came Js-7h-5d, and Guichard led for 625,000. Kursevich called. The turn was the 9h, bringing another bet from the Frenchman, this time worth 1.325 million, to which the man from Belarus responded with an all-in shove.

Guichard called immediately, showing 5h-5s for a set of fives. Kursevich turned over 6h-3h -- a flush draw and a double-gutter. The river then brought the 8c, filling a straight for Kursevich and giving him the title.

2012 EPT Deauville Main Event final table payouts:
1st: Vadzim Kursevich (Belarus) -- €875,000
2nd: Paul Guichard (France) -- €557,000
3rd: Vuong Than Trong (France) -- €328,000
4th: Yorane Kerignard (France) -- €260,000
5th: Bruno Jais (France) -- €200,000
6th: Olivier Rogez (France) -- €155,000
7th: Luca Pagano (Italy) -- €110,000
8th: Mick Graydon (Ireland) -- €67,200

Monday's win gives Kursevich the biggest payday of his poker career, his previous best coming from a third-place finish at EPT Berlin last spring which earned him €300,000.

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Pagano had been the chip leader when play began on Sunday, by which point just 24 of the 889 who entered the €5,300 buy-in event had survived. The top 129 finishers made the money in the event, and among the notables cashing were Alain Roy (113th, €7,500), Todd Terry (92nd, €9,000), James Dempsey (90th, €9,000), Toby Lewis (60th, €13,000), Ludovic Lacay (58th, €13,000), and end-of-day-2 leader Martins Adeniya (43rd, 15,000).

Play began on Day 5 with the short stacks quickly falling, beginning with Karim Lehoussine (24th), Kevin Vandersmissen (23rd), and Patrick Nataf (22nd), all of whom earned €23,000. Marc Inizan soon followed in 21st when his pocket eights failed to hold against Kursevich's As-Kc. A king flopped, and Inizan was out, also earning him a €23,000 payday.

Next to fall were Antonio Guerrero (20th), Andre Corredoira (19th), Rumen Nanev (18th), and Christian Togsverd (17th), all of whom also took €23,000 for their efforts.

Artem Litvinov followed in 16th (€26,000), then came a huge three-way all-in pitting Guichard (Kh-Kd), Chris Brammer (As-Ks), and Denis Cheremisin (Jh-10h). The board came Qd-3d-10c-9h-4d, meaning Guichard's kings were good. Two more players had hit the rail, Cheremisin (15th) and Brammer (14th), both earning €26,000.

Guichard was already leading before that hand, but afterwards had shot up to the 5 million-chip mark to extend his lead. Bruno Jais followed with about 3.6 million, with Kursevich third with just over 2.9 million.

As play wound down on the two short-handed tables, Rob Stain went out in 13th (€30,000), Ignat Liviu was eliminated in 12th (€37,500), and Nikolaus Teichert was felted in 11th (€37,500).

Kursevich next took care of Etienne Moudaress. The latter had shoved a ten-high flop holding As-10h, and Kursevich called holding Jh-Jc. The better pair held and Moudaress was out in 10th (€50,000).

Finally, the last hand of the day saw Sergey Baburin and Jais checking a Qh-Qs-10d flop, then Jais leading out after a 2s turn. Barburin raised all in and Jais quickly called, tabling Kc-Qc for trip queens. Baburin had but 10s-9h, making the river no matter and sending him out in ninth (€50,000).

Here's how the final eight will stack up for the sixth and final day of play on Monday:

1. Paul Guichard -- 5,955,000
2. Vadzim Kursevich -- 5,670,000
3. Olivier Rogez -- 4,415,000
4. Bruno Jais -- 3,450,000
5. Vuong Than Trong -- 2,570,000
6. Luca Pagano -- 2,010,000
7. Yorane Kerignard -- 1,680,000
8. Mick Graydon -- 960,000

A lot of money awaits those at the final table, with more than 2.55 million Euros still up for grabs and a cool €875,000 reserved for the winner.

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We've been hearing about Groupe Bernard Tapie for almost five months now. Let's review first how they came to be involved in the Full Tilt saga.

FTP: French To Purchase?

News of GBT's interest in acquiring the non-operating online poker site first surfaced in late September amid other negative news for Full Tilt Poker and its former customers.

Just over a week before, the U.S. Department of Justice had added new allegations to its original civil complaint, including outlining the site's misinforming of players regarding the safety of their funds, the funneling of millions into various "FTP Inside Accounts," and the explicit addition of Howard Lederer, Chris Ferguson, and Rafe Furst to the list of those being accused of wrongdoing. (See "Hard to Explain: The Full Tilt Poker Fiasco" for further details.)

And just a day before the news broke regarding GBT's interest in acquiring the site, the Alderney Gambling Control Commission revoked the Full Tilt Poker's licenses to operate after having suspended them in late June.

Undeterred, the announcement of GBT's agreement to purchase Full Tilt Poker was accompanied by optimistic statements regarding the repayment of players in the U.S. and elsewhere, as well as hopeful indications that the site would be back up and running for those outside of the U.S. beginning in January 2012.

About three weeks later in mid-November it was announced that with the U.S. Department of Justice's involvement a deal had been struck to allow the purchase to go through. The deal required approval by Full Tilt Poker shareholders and involved FTP forfeiting its assets to the DOJ who would in turn sell them to GBT for a sum of $80 million. The GBT would subsequently take on the responsibility of satisfying "ROW" (Rest of World) players and what they are owed while the DOJ would facilitate the repayment of U.S. players.

"Jesus" No Savior?

As the calendar creeped toward the end of last month it became evident those initial hopes for a January 2012 relaunch of Full Tilt Poker had become increasingly unlikely as GBT's deal to purchase the site had yet to be finalized.

On Wednesday, January 25, the investigative news site Subject:Poker published a story reporting details regarding the various bank accounts employed Chris "Jesus" Ferguson for the depositing of funds delivered to him as "Full Tilt distribution payments." The story, authored by "Diamond Flush" (a pseudonym), fills in details regarding the $25 million already paid to Ferguson by FTP as well as the additional $60 million owed to him, as alleged by the DOJ in its amended civil complaint. No sources for the article are provided.

According to the article, Ferguson had been paid approximately $45 million of the funds the DOJ had listed as still owed to him, but at the time of Black Friday was still owed about $14.3 million which Ferguson allowed the company to keep to help cover expenses. Ferguson and his lawyer, Ian Imrich, are described in the article as having "threatened to file for... a constructive trust over the money seized on Black Friday and injunctive relief to delay the planned forfeiture of FTP's assets until their issue is resolved."

In other words, the story suggests that Ferguson's desire to recover the additional $14.3 million owed to him could result in an effort to stop the GBT deal from being finalized. The news understandably provoked reaction within the poker community as it suggests Ferguson's effort to receive his "distribution payments" -- which the DOJ has alleged have been taken from players' accounts thanks to FTP's failure to segregate funds -- might directly prevent the completion of a deal that could result in the return of players' money.

Both Imrich and a representative of Groupe Bernard Tapie have denied Subject:Poker's allegation that Ferguson's efforts to settle his personal accounts with FTP in any way threatened the possible completion of the deal.

Card Player reported Imrich dismissing the story as containing "numerous erroneous comments and contentions," adding that Ferguson's "accounting request" would have no effect on the pending deal. And speaking with iGaming France earlier this week, Laurent Tapie described the Subject:Poker story as "totally false," adding that Ferguson not only "has no problem with regard to the completion of the takeover agreement," but that he couldn't oppose it or block it even if he wanted to.

As far as a timetable for the deal's completion is concerned, Imrich suggests "the deal should be done within the first half, if not the first quarter, of this year." Meanwhile, Laurent Tapie told iGaming France that "unless there are last minute surprises, we hope to do the deal by the end of February."

Claims Dropped from One, Though Still Flush With Suits

This week brought still more news regarding Full Tilt Poker's various legal troubles extending beyond the DOJ's indictment and civil complaint.

On Monday, a Southern District of New York judge dismissed most of the claims associated with a class action suit on behalf of U.S.-based players brought against Full Tilt Poker's many companies and various individuals. The lawsuit, brought in late June, had listed more than a dozen individuals (including many Team Full Tilt members) and nine different companies, alleging they were guilty of violating the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act.

However, the judge dismissed the claims against all but Full Tilt Poker CEO Ray Bitar and payment processing manager Nelson Burtnick. Bitar and Burtnick are the only individuals associated with Full Tilt Poker named in the Black Friday's indictment (i.e., they are the only ones with criminal charges against them at present).

The suit on behalf of U.S. players is in fact just one of several class action suits that have been brought against Full Tilt Poker. A second was filed in August of last year by Canadians (on behalf of all players). A third was filed by another Canadian group on behalf of Canadian players only in September. And in October another was filed in a California courtroom, again naming several players as well as Ferguson's lawyer, Imrich.

FTP Owes Ferguson, But Other Pros Owe FTP?

Then on Thursday yet another mini-bombshell regarding Full Tilt Poker landed, kind of a reverse of the Ferguson story involving the 2000 WSOP Main Event champion seeking funds from the site he partially owns. In this case, it is being alleged that a number of high-profile poker pros actually owe Full Tilt Poker money.

Behn Dayanim, attorney for Groupe Bernard Tapie, spoke with PokerStrategy regarding money owed to FTP by various players, among them Team Full Tilt member Phil Ivey who just last week won the $250,000 buy-in "Super High Roller" event at the 2012 Aussie Millions.

Other players said by Dayanim to owe FTP money include Erick Lindgren and Mike Matusow (also of Team Full Tilt) and former red pros Layne Flack and David Benyamine. Also named by Dayanim as owing FTP money was Barry Greenstein, a PokerStars pro.

According to Dayanim, the amount owed by the players adds up to "between $10 and $20 million," and "if the money doesn't come in, it creates a serious obstacle to [the] completion of the deal." He added that other issues also still need to be resolved for the deal to be completed, but "this is a substantial item."

Greenstein took to the forums on Two Plus Two to explain what he says is the $400,000 he borrowed from Full Tilt Poker "a few years ago." Matt Kaufman of PokerStrategy has compiled Greenstein's initial explanation and follow-up statements in another article.

It is unclear how significant the money owed FTP by the professional players really is to the completion of the deal, although the news certainly provides other players -- i.e., those who were never in a position to borrow huge sums directly from Full Tilt Poker to play on the site -- yet another piece of information to fret over. The news is especially frustrating given the fact that it is now known that Full Tilt Poker's failure to segregate operating expenses and player accounts means any money loaned out in this way could be said to have been taken from player accounts.

In any event, as the first anniversary of Black Friday approaches, players hoping for a return of funds continue to watch and wait. While it remains unclear when (or whether) repayments will occur, it appears we all can count on still more stories from Full Tilt Poker's sordid saga to be forthcoming.

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Thanks to a bit of misdirection delivered via the WSOP's Twitter account yesterday, some had thought this year would no longer see a delayed final table for the Main Event as has been the case since 2008. Coupled with speculation stemming from the successful "almost live" broadcasts of the Main Event from last year (discussed here), a tweet from the WSOP yesterday noting "you won't find the November Nine returning" led many to believe the delay was no more and the Main Event would be playing out to its conclusion in July.

However, the final table will in fact follow a similar format to past years only with the final table happening in late October rather than November in order to avoid coinciding with the U.S. Presidential election on November 6th.

An increase in the number of tables available for use (to 470) means the Main Event will be able to accommodate just three Day 1 flights this year. Also, there will be no scheduled day off during the Main Event in 2012, meaning that the three Day 1s will be immediately followed by two Day 2s, then the field will combine on Day 3 and play through to the final nine on July 16 (Day 7).

New events on this year's schedule include a $3,000 Heads-Up No-Limit Hold'em/Pot-Limit Omaha event (No. 3), a $5,000 "Mix-Max" NLH event with differing table sizes including heads-up (No. 6), a $2,500 four-handed NLH event (No. 28), and a $1,500 "Ante Only" NLH event (with no blinds) (No. 49).

Also new this year will be the much-heralded $1 million buy-in event, a.k.a. "The Big One" (Event No. 55). That tournament, for which 22 players have already indicated their intention to participate, is slated to begin at 1:11 p.m. on July 1st with 11.1% of the prize pool going to the One Drop Foundation dedicated to providing access to drinkable water around the globe.

Another WSOP first in 2012 will be a "re-entry" tournament (Event No. 9), a $1,500 NLH event in which players will have an option to buy back in on the second of two Day 1s should they bust on the first.

There will also be a couple of exhibition (non-bracelet) events at this year's WSOP -- a one-day "doubles" event ($560 NLH) in which partners can team up, and a one-day bounty event ($560 NLH) in which bounties will be awarded for eliminating WSOP bracelet holders.

Also back in 2012 are the $1,000 Seniors No-Limit Hold'em Championship (No. 29) and the $1,000 Ladies No-Limit Hold'em Championship (No. 51), as well as the $50,000 Players Championship in which players will again play eight different poker variants (No. 45).

Full details of this year's World Series of Poker schedule -- including structure sheets for all 61 bracelet events -- can be found on the WSOP site.

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Just seven remained for Sunday's final table, the sixth day of play in the $10,600 buy-in event. Bjorn Li led the final group with 4.775 million, with Speidel closest with 3.415 million when the first hand of the final table was dealt.

It took a couple of hours before the first elimination. Yann Dion had become the short stack and reraised his remaining 1.5 million or so over a Speidel raise holding 7s-7h. Unfortunately for Dion, Speidel called with Qh-Qd, and after the board brought no help for Dion he was out in seventh.

As Speidel moved up, Bjorn Li moved down and soon was below the 1 million mark at the bottom of the final six. Those chips would then go in the middle behind Ac-Qd against Mohamad Kowssarie's 3d-3s, and when the board came Ks-7d-2s-2h-9d they were down to five.

They played on through the next break, with Speidel pushing up over 7 million and the others' stacks getting shorter. He then took out Patrick Healy in fifth when the latter got all of his stack in following a 9c-8c-4h flop holding As-Kd while Speidel had a nearly unbeatable 9h-8h, and two cards later Healy was gone in fifth.

Speidel would be the one to take care of the final three eliminations as well, and in short order.

First Kowssarie reraised all in from the small blind over a Speidel button raise holding As-2h and Speidel snap-called with Kh-Kd. A king flopped to give Speidel a set and by the turn Kowssarie was drawing dead.

With three left Speidel had 14.4 million to Wong's 4.2 million and Mile Krstanoski's 1.2 million. Krstanoski would soon call a Speidel all-in with 9s-8c while Speidel had Kh-8h. The community cards came Ah-9c-6d-4h-7c and just two remained.

Heads-up play began with Speidel enjoying a better than 3-to-1 chip advantage with 15.2 million to Wong's 4.675 million. Following a break, the two played about 15 minutes before Wong committed all of his chips preflop with 9c-9h. Alas for him, Speidel tabled As-Ac, and after the dealer dealt the board out 8h-Ks-10s-4c-7h, Speidel had won.

2012 Aussie Millions Main Event final table payouts (AUD):
1st: Oliver Speidel ($1,200,000)
2nd: Kenneth Wong ($1,000,000)
3rd: Mile Krstanoski ($610,000)
4th: Mohamad Kowssarie ($405,000)
5th: Patrick Healy ($300,000)
6th: Bjorn Li ($230,000)
7th: Yann Dion ($170,000)

This marks the biggest cash by far for the Australian. Speidel's largest previous win was at last year's Aussie Millions when he took just over $100,000 (AUD) for winning a $1,000 no-limit hold'em preliminary event.

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$250,000 Challenge

"$250k to flip some coins" tweeted Daniel Negreanu the day before the tourney took place. "Turbo structure won't last long," he added.

Indeed, with 30-minute levels and fast-rising blinds and antes, the turbo-like structure ensured frequent all-ins pretty much from the start, despite the fact that players began with relatively deep stacks of 250,000 (250 BBs). That said, the event ended up lasting quite a long time, beginning in the early afternoon and not ending until almost 6 a.m. on Sunday.

A couple of players were still arriving as the first bustouts were occurring, among them Tom "durrrr" Dwan. Others to hit the rail during the early levels included Nick Wong, Richard Yong, and late-arriver John Juanda, the latter busted by Negreanu at the start of Level 5.

2011 European Player of the Year Sam Trickett was knocked out by Jason Mercier shortly thereafter, followed by last year's Aussie Millions $250K winner Erik Seidel at the hands of this year's $100K winner Dan Smith.

Meanwhile, Gus Hansen had emerged as the leader with 10 players left, becoming the first of the group to 1 million chips.

Paul Phua was then eliminated by Jason Mercier, and the remaining nine redrew and gathered around a single table where Mercier would become the next to go when his Ac-7s failed to improve against Phil Ivey's Ah-Qs.

Soon it was Negreanu seizing the lead from Hansen, using Ks-Kc to score some chips off the Dane. Negreanu then busted Smith to add still more to his stack, and Sorel Mizzi took out Tony Bloom just prior to a break to reduce the field to six.

At that point Negreanu led with better than 1.16 million, Mizzi was next with just over 900,000, followed by Ivey, Patrik Antonius, Hansen, and Winfred Yu.

During the next level Hansen became short, then doubled through Ivey when his 2d-2h held up against Ivey's Ad-Kc. Then Winfred Yu committed his short stack with Ah-10d against leader Negreanu's 10h-8d, but the flop brought a couple of eights and Yu was soon out in sixth. Soon after Phil Ivey used 10s-10d to knock out Sorel Mizzi in fifth, catapulting Ivey into the lead with four remaining.

Negreanu would be the unfortunate player to go out on the $800,000 bubble. All in with As-8d against Antonius' Jc-Jd, the board ran out 4c-Qh-7d-9c-10d and they were down to three.

Moments later Hansen was eliminated after getting all of his stack in with Kc-8s on a Jc-4s-Kd flop only to see Ivey turn over Jh-4h for two pair. The turn brought another jack to give Ivey a full house, and after the 9h river Hansen was out in third.

Heads-up began with Ivey ahead with about 2.2 million to Antonius' 1.8 million. Ivey soon began to extend his lead, and enjoyed close to a 7-to-1 chip advantage when the final hand took place.

With the blinds at 30,000/60,000, Antonius raised all in for his last half-million or so with Ks-3d and Ivey quickly called with Ah-Qd. The flop paired Antonius, coming 3c-6s-5s, but the turn brought the Qc to put Ivey out in front. The river was the 8d, and Ivey had won.

2012 Aussie Millions $250K Challenge payouts (AUD):

1st: Phil Ivey -- $2,000,000

2nd: Patrik Antonius -- $1,200,000

3rd: Gus Hansen -- $800,000


The $2 million payday marks the largest of Phil Ivey's illustrious career and pushes him past Daniel Negreanu into second place on the all-time money list behind last year's $250K Super High Roller winner, Erik Seidel.

Main Event: Li Leads Final Seven

Meanwhile over in the Main Event they played down from 12 players to a final seven-handed table on Saturday, with Bjorn Li emerging as the chip leader with 4.775 million chips heading into Sunday's final day of play. Oliver Speidel is Li's nearest challenger at the moment with 3.415 million.

Ivey was the center of attention over in the ME, too, when play began on Day 5. He began the day with the shortest stack among the 12 who had survived the original field of 659. But within the first level of play he ran Ad-Qc into Yann Dion's As-Kd, and when the board ran out nine-high Ivey was out in 12th for a payday of $100,000.

Following Ivey to the rail on Saturday were Karim Jomeen (11th, $100,000), Janis Lesinskis (10th, $100,000), 2006 Aussie Millions Main Event winner Lee Nelson (9th, $125,000), and brother of Two Plus Two PokerCast co-host Adam Schwartz and WSOP bracelet winner Daniel Idema (8th, $125,000).

Here's how the chips look to begin Sunday's final day of play in the Main Event:

1. Bjorn Li -- 4,775,000
2. Oliver Speidel -- 3,415,000
3. Patrick Healy -- 2,995,000
4. Kenneth Wong -- 2,330,000
5. Yann Dion -- 2,325,000
6. Mile Kstanoski -- 2,295,000
7. Mohamad Kowssari -- 1,750,000

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An Entrance to Poker

Short-Stacked Shamus: In what department are you at Drexel? And what is your academic background?

Bruce McCullough: I'm in the Business School in the Decision Sciences Department. I earned a degree in economics from Georgetown University after which I worked for a consulting firm for a couple years. Then I went to graduate school at the University of Texas at Austin where I got a Ph.D. in economics. I'm an econometrician by training, which is sort of like applied statistics for economics.

SSS: So how did you get interested in poker?

BM: Well, I was invited to an investment house a few years ago to give a talk on the accuracy of statistical software. As it turns out many software packages have inaccuracies in them -- for example, Microsoft Excel has lots of errors in it -- and so I was there to talk about that. When I was getting the tour, the guide stopped and pointed at a door and said, "In there is our poker room." And I laughed, because I thought she was joking. But she opened the door and I entered and sure enough there were several felt covered tables.

SSS: How about that?

BM: So I looked at the room. I had read books on the mathematics of finance and I know something about financial econometrics. And suddenly as I looked at the poker tables and realized where I was, I saw the connection: poker is just trading off risk and reward on the fly.

So I thought about it a little more and I started doing the probability calculations in my head and I realized I could calculate the probability of winning poker hands. And I saw the game theoretic aspects of it right away, too, so in the space of about thirty seconds I figured out that I had spent my entire graduate career preparing to play poker, and I didn't even know it!

SSS: Ha! So you began to play soon after that?

BM: Right. I went home and did a Google search and the book by Bill Chen and Jerrod Ankenman had just come out, The Mathematics of Poker. I read that book and it was off to the races. I found out how to get some money into an online poker account and started playing penny poker and enjoying it quite a bit.

The Decision to Teach Poker

SSS: How did you come to teach your "Probability, Poker, and Decisions" course?

BM: I was teaching an undergraduate statistics class which has a probability section in it. One of the students during the class asked me how to calculate probabilities for poker hands, and I said I didn't think it would be of interest to everyone, but I'd be happy to explain it after class. So after class four or five students stayed around and for the next few meetings we got together after class and I showed them the basics.

Now one of these students was an honors student and he asked me whether I would be interested in teaching an honors course on math and poker, and I said sure. So he did all of the paperwork and I got to design and teach the class.

SSS: That's terrific. And when was the first time you taught it?

BM: I've only taught it once, in 2010. It was a lot of fun because I had to systematize everything I'd learned and make it intelligible to people who didn't know a lot of math. And I had to come up with a lot of outside readings to try to make it germane to them.

SSS: The syllabus looks very interesting.

BM: Yes, we start with the basic probability calculations, counting methods, and so on. Then we do expected value and Bayes theorem. Then we proceed through odds, outs, implied odds, and David Sklansky's Fundamental Theorem of Poker. Then I introduce them to limit poker calculations and we talk about deciding whether to call, raise, or fold and the math of sucking out.

Following that we go over some utility theory because, of course, this is a business school and all of this has to be directly applicable to business. So we do the expected utility theory and then introduce the standard paradoxes from that and then move into prospect theory and show the heuristics and biases that occur naturally in a decision-making context. Then I relate these biases to poker.

SSS: I do see a few familiar names on your syllabus among the readings.

BM: Right, Barry Tannenbaum and Rachel Croson had a couple of nice little articles in Card Player on prospect theory. Then after we do limit hold'em we move on to no-limit, because that's what everyone wants to play. So we do the no-limit calculations for fold equity, implied odds, semi-bluffing, the gap concept, and so on.

Some "Hands-On" Experience

SSS: So you have a semester's worth of interesting lectures and discussions, and I see you have a paper and a couple of exams.

BM: Yes, and another interesting thing I was able to do -- this was before Black Friday -- was to have someone set up for me my own weekly tournament on Full Tilt Poker. I think it was every Tuesday night at 10 o'clock, we had a mandatory limit hold'em tournament.

SSS: That's excellent. I also have my "Poker in American Film & Culture" class play some poker early in the semester, primarily to get the students familiar with the rules and different games (draw, stud, and hold'em).

BM: It worked really well the first several weeks, although after we moved to no-limit hold'em in the class people became less interested in playing limit hold'em -- I wasn't able to change the parameters of the tournament.

SSS: To me it makes perfect sense to have them play in a course about decision-making and probability. That's a great idea to make that part of the class.

BM: Oh, it certainly was. I played, too, the first couple of times, but it wasn't really that fair. I think the first two times I won and the third time I finished second. So I quit playing but I would watch the tournaments after that. In fact we had a great discussion in class about the tournament in which I managed to finish second, because I had not previously had any heads-up experience against an aggressive player. And the person who beat me played very aggressively, so I knew he was raising with crap but I couldn't call him!

SSS: Right!

BM: So we had a great discussion in class about that and in fact I brought in an article about Jerry Yang's win in the 2007 WSOP Main Event in which the author describes how Yang was bluffing one-third of the time. I asked the students what one thing really stood out to them from that article, and it wasn't that Yang wasn't a professional or anything else, but the fact that he bluffed a third of the time.

SSS: It was his strategy, not his story, that stood out.

BM: Right. And when we got to the game theory part of the course, I showed them that in that setting the game theory optimal bluffing ratio is one-third!

SSS: Wow. That's definitely a memorable example, too.

BM: Yes, the game theory part of the course is just fascinating.

SSS: It seems to me that unlike my class -- which is more focused on history, literature, and film and not so much on learning how to play poker -- students taking your course really do come away with a better understanding of how to play the game.

BM: Depending upon where the student starts, yes. And, of course, I tell them as well that beyond just learning the math of the game it also takes patience and discipline to win.

Not Just a "Poker Class"

SSS: Let me ask you one more question about teaching a college course in which poker is part of the class. Since I began teaching my course, I've been asked quite often about teaching a "poker class" in college. What do you say when people have asked you about teaching poker in college?

BM: Well, I don't really call it a "poker class." This is a course in decision-making. And we do all the usual decision-making stuff that you would find in many other decision-making classes. We do utility theory, prospect theory, decision trees, Bayes theorem, and so on. It just so happens that the examples that I use to illustrate the concepts are all from poker.

My next step, when I teach the class again, will be to place a business application at the end to illustrate each concept. So when we do decision trees or game theory or other topics, we'll talk about them in limit hold'em but then we'll also be talking about them in business. I've taught this as a special topics honor class, but if this is going to be a regular class in a business school, it really has to be about business, too.

That said, the course is very rigorous. We do lots and lots of math. And the students are all interested in the topic to begin with and willing to work hard because they want to learn the material.

A Probability-Studying Poker Player in Havana

SSS: You recommended a film to me a while back, Havana (1990), as one I should consider for my class. As you know the film is set on the eve of the Castro revolution in Cuba at the end of 1958 and stars Robert Redford as a poker player, Jack Weil.

I wrote about the film on the Epic Poker blog this week and talked about how it uses poker to help convey ideas both about Redford's character and American identity. One thing I didn't mention in the column was a kind of interesting moment near the end of the film. A character is in Jack's apartment and finds a couple of books. [A screenshot showing the books appears above.]

BM: Right, we see in his flat he has a couple of books, one titled Laws of Probability and another called A Theory of Numbers.

SSS: Are those actual books?

BM: Yes, they are actual titles. There are a thousand books called A Theory of Numbers, really, but looking at the books one can tell they are graduate-level textbooks from the 1940s or 1950s. And those can't be read by a layman. They can't be read by someone without extensive training in mathematics.

SSS: So it isn't just a random detail in the film. Those books tell us he's more than just an average poker player.

BM: Right, Jack Weil is some sort of autodidact to have taught himself enough math to have mastered these books. If you can imagine somebody with a modern-day ability to play poker going back forty years and playing then, he would clean up! And so that's kind of what Jack Weil was doing, using all of this cutting edge probability and number theory to be a better poker player. The stuff we take for granted now, he was doing back in the 1950s!

SSS: That moment makes me think a little of the shot in The Cincinnati Kid when we see Eric preparing for his big match with the Man by doing some math exercises, calculating percentages. Not exactly graduate-level work, but just something to keep his mind limber before he plays. So it's a little similar in Havana, but those books are doing more than just suggesting that Jack is an analytically-minded person. Rather he is someone highly unique in that late 1950s world.

BM: Yes, he's extraordinary.

SSS: Well, thanks very much for taking the time to talk about your not-so-ordinary course!

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Londoner Karim Jomeen will begin Saturday in fourth, followed by Daniel Idema (Canada) and Lee Nelson (New Zealand).

As mentioned, Phil Ivey, who finished ninth in the $100,000 Challenge won by Dan Smith, just missing the final table there, started strong in the Aussie Millions Main Event and has been on the leaderboard since he played in the third of the three Day 1 flights.

Ivey ended that day in the top 10 overall with 305 players left, then finished Day 2 second behind Tim O'Shea with 75 remaining. Day 3 ended with 26 players still in the hunt and Ivey in sixth.

Others still alive on Friday but who did not make it through to Day 5 included David Steicke who was the first elimination of the day in 26th, good for a $35,000 return on his $10,600 buy-in (AUD). Among the others hitting the rail as the day progressed were Tim O'Shea (22nd, $45,000), Joey Lawrence (17th, $60,000), Minh Nguyen (16th, $60,000), Grant Levy (15th, $75,000), and Matt Turk (15th, $75,000).

The final hand of the night saw Danny Chevalier all in with Kd-Js against Yann Dion's Ah-Qd. The board came Jh-Ad-6d-8s-7h, sending Chevalier out in 13th ($75,000) and giving Dion the chips and the lead.

Here's how they'll stack up when play begins on Saturday:

1. Yann Dion -- 2,670,000
2. Bjorn Li -- 2,471,000
3. Mohamad Kowssarie -- 2,230,000
4. Karim Jomeen -- 2,063,000
5. Daniel Idema -- 1,840,000
6. Lee Nelson -- 1,651,000
7. Patrick Healy -- 1,565,000
8. Janis Lesinskis -- 1,501,000
9. Kenneth Wong -- 1,498,000
10. Oliver Speidel -- 809,000
11. Mile Krstanoski -- 755,000
12. Phil Ivey -- 699,000

Also of interest this weekend will be that $250,000 Challenge, a.k.a. the "Super High Roller." Originally scheduled for Friday, that event has been pushed back to take place during the weekend.

The Main Event also has had an extra day added to its schedule, as the plan will be for these 12 to play down to a seven-handed final table on Saturday, then return on Sunday to determine who among them will be taking away the $1.6 million first prize.

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