Poker News / Short-Stacked Shamus / 12 November 2010 / Leave a Comment

No need to worry about "spoilers" anymore. It's all over. It took many months, but finally the 2010 World Series of Poker has reached its conclusion, with Jonathan Duhamel having become the first-ever Canadian WSOP Main Event champion.

Not surprisingly, the hoodie-wearing champ has given numerous interviews over the last few days to talk about his victory, including several to mainstream outlets that don't otherwise cover poker that often. Indeed, just yesterday The Toronto Sun ran a story about their countryman's triumph in which the author spoke to Duhamel about the win.

As the headline suggests -- "Poker champ Duhamel puts his win down to luck" -- the role of luck in Duhamel's victory receives emphasis in the short article. "Even the best player won't win without luck," affirms Duhamel.

Sometimes poker players defend their game as distinct from other types of gambling, pointing that poker is unique because there consistent success requires the player demonstrate some degree of skill. Unlike, say, roulette, a game in which the players are entirely subject to chance, poker generally does -- more often than not -- reward the more skillful player.

That said, it is important for poker's defenders not to forget that luck does play a role, sometimes significantly. In other words, Duhamel isn't just being humble when he says even skillful players need luck on their side. He's being truthful, too.

His point was proven even before the final table, most dramatically in that huge hand between himself and Matt Affleck occurring with 15 players remaining. You'll recall how in that hand Affleck had pushed his remaining chips in the middle on the turn with the board showing 10d-9c-7h-Qd, and Duhamel called the bet, creating a pot of about 41 million and leaving himself approximately 8 million behind.

Affleck held pocket aces, while Duhamel's J-J meant he needed an eight or a king for a straight, or a jack to make a set. That made Duhamel about a 4-to-1 dog, but the river brought the 8d, eliminating Affleck and giving Duhamel an enormous chip lead which he would maintain until the final table began.

Luck also played a significant role at that final table, with several hands similarly demonstrating how a player "getting it in good" before the flop -- or being mathematically ahead on the flop or turn -- didn't guarantee he would be rewarded in the end.

Interestingly, Duhamel and John Racener -- the two who would eventually be the final players standing from the 7,319 who entered the Main Event -- both found themselves the table's short stack at some point during the final table.

With five players to go, there was a moment -- lasting for just a single hand, actually -- when Duhamel was fifth of the five. And Racener found himself last in chips frequently throughout the final table, nursing a short stack for much of Saturday and into Monday's heads-up battle.

In fact, on consecutive hands Racener and then Duhamel were each all in with their tourney lives on the line, and in both cases they were underdogs, percentage-wise, to survive!

First Racener was all in with As-Qs against Duhamel's Ac-Kh, meaning he had about a 30% chance to survive. Luckily for Racener, a queen flopped and his hand held up. Then, on the very next hand, Duhamel was all in and covered by Michael Mizrachi, with Duhamel holding As-9h and Mizrachi 3h-3s. A little more even, here, although technically Mizrachi's hand was about 53% to win. However, luck was on the underdog's side once again, as a nine flopped and Duhamel's hand held.

Of course, these examples primarily concern the luck associated with how the cards fall. That is what is traditionally meant when people refer to the "luck of the draw" -- i.e., the chance element associated with the order in which the cards are dealt in a given hand.

But there's another way the phrase "luck of the draw" applies to tournament poker, namely, the luck associated with the table draw that determines the players against whom one will be directly competing.

Those who regularly play on the professional tournament circuit are pretty much unanimous in pointing out that one's table draws -- assigned at random (i.e., entirely based on chance) -- often have more to do with one's chances of succeeding in tournaments than do the cards one is dealt.

The irony there, of course, is that it is the skill element in poker that makes table draws "lucky" or "unlucky." Unlike in a cash games, one doesn't get to choose one's opponents in tournaments. Thus, say, receiving an "unlucky" draw and having to tangle with more skillful players is yet another way luck can matter greatly in tournament poker.

Along those same lines, let's go back to that final table and once again consider how luck mattered to both Duhamel and Racener as they successfully negotiated their way to heads-up play.

Once the tourney reached three-handed, Joseph Cheong and Duhamel spent the next two dozen hands enjoying a monstrous chip advantage over Racener. While the gum-chewing Floridian languished with a stack hovering around the 30 million chips, Cheong and Duhamel mostly sat with 85-90 million apiece, with each player spending a few hands during that stretch above the 100 million-chip mark.

Then came the big one, the almost 177-million chip pot that resulted in Cheong suddenly dropping to less than 5 million and Duhamel all but ensuring his victory. That's the hand in which Cheong and Duhamel engaged in a series of preflop raises, culminating in Cheong's all-in, six-bet shove with As-7h and Duhamel calling with Qc-Qd.

Again, one could say Duhamel and Racener succeeded in their efforts to make it to heads-up both because of their own play and because of a factor which neither of them could fully control, namely, Joseph Cheong's decision to push all his chips in the middle with As-7h. Just as one cannot select one's opponents in tournament poker, neither can one select what actions one's opponents will make. (Not fully, anyway, as one can obviously "induce" certain plays, if one is skillful enough to do so.)

The short-stacked Racener was quite lucky, then, Cheong was willing to gamble. So was Duhamel.

And an ace didn't fall. That was lucky, too.

Photo courtesy FlipChip, LasVegasVegas.com

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