Variance and standard deviation
Marcus Bateman
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Marcus Bateman /
29 January 2009 /
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Always remember that for nearly everyone who plays poker the luck runs nearly exactly the same - but only over a big enough sample size.
If enough poker players played for long enough, eventually there would be one player who lost every single hand they ever played - be it aces or deuce seven off suit - and a player that won every hand they played, regardless of each hands strength.
This is because over a big enough sample size everything that can possibly happen will happen, and as a result both extremes of luck will be demonstrated eventually.
Luckily for us, we know from the statistics of standard deviation that these types of results are extremely unlikely. In fact, standard deviation quickly shows us that the vast majority of participants in such a system are actually quite closely grouped together (hence the classic 'bell curve' graph so often associated with standard deviation). Because of this, most players will actually have very similar results over a large sample size, hence the ability for skill to show and money to be won or lost when playing poker.
So we can clearly see that over a large sample size of hands - for the most part anyway - that everyones luck will actually be remarkably similar. However, on any given day your luck can fit basically anywhere in the standard deviation bell curve. Although the most likely place that you will occupy will be around the average luck area, winning and losing hands at a pretty regular frequency compared to the odds involved, many times you will be sitting at one of the more extreme ends of the frequency, either feeling like you cannot win a hand to save your life, or that you are on a heater that will never end.
You will never know exactly where you are in terms of luck until the events have happened - which in many ways is one of the great features of poker, as you never know what your day is going to bring. Always remember that for nearly everyone who plays poker the luck runs nearly exactly the same - but only over a big enough sample size. On any given day you have little control over anything except trying to get it in good as often as possible and leaving the rest for lady luck to decide.
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