Thinking about your opponent's view

Marcus Bateman / Marcus Bateman / 07 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

Auguste Rodin's "The Thinker"

The margins in poker are pretty small in the long run, and being able to win the odd extra pot that your opponent's would not think of going after makes a huge difference in the long run.

Although at the lowest stakes, poker is primarily a game about just hitting hands and betting them well (something which is more than good enough to win the money against the very weakest players), as you get higher you have to start thinking about how your opponent(s) are viewing you, and adjusting your game in line with it.

Often in poker moves which feel wrong can actually be right if you are considering how your opponent is thinking about you, and spotting when and where to make moves in line with these observations is critical to success at all but the lowest stakes.

Say you have been playing a few tables online and have had one table in particular where you have had a long run of junk and just been folding. You see a suited ace and raise it, ending up in a pot against another solid, observant regular with the nut flush draw on an otherwise unconnected flop. You know that this player usually bets or raises big hands and typically calls with draws or middle/bottom pairs and sees what develops.

You fire the flop, miss the turn yet fire again, and end up missing the river. This is a situation that many players reason that they should slow down in (after all, they have nothing), yet often if you think about the hand from your opponent's point of view it is a great time to speed up. As they usually raise with the hands you know will call a big river bet (in this case sets or over pairs), a shove will often move them off the hand.

From their point of view, you have basically been very tight, have come into a pot raising, and then fired every street on a relatively dry board. It takes quite a lot to call a big river bet with any likely holding from them - calling off against tighter players in these spots with weak holdings is a recipe for disaster in the long run - and any astute player knows this.

One of the most common mistakes you see as a mid stakes player is watching newcomers be too orientated about just the strength of their hand. Poker is a game where your hand is just as strong as the story you are telling about it, and understanding what opponent types take what stories seriously is crucial to maximising your wins.

The margins in poker are pretty small in the long run, and being able to win the odd extra pot that your opponent's would not think of going after makes a huge difference in the long run.

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