Thinking about multiple street odds

Marcus Bateman / Marcus Bateman / 10 September 2009 / Leave a Comment

One of the key mistakes weak players make when they play poker is to only consider odds and action in terms of what is presented to them there and then.

Whether it is defending their blind with a weak hand, chasing draws on both flop and turn, or trying to call down with a marginal hand, they nearly always fail to factor in the future odds they will be laid, and this makes their current decision a much bigger mistake than it first appears.

Say you are up against a very good no limit hold'em player and looking down at a hand like king ten off suit in the big blind after they have raised three times the big blind. You know that this player is more than capable of three barrel bluffing, as well as firing three times with a very strong hand. Although the odds you appear to be being laid are not that bad (2.25 to 1), in reality the odds are much worse than this if you intend to try and get to show down if you hit any part of your hand.

You may well have to call off your entire stack if you hit a ten or king and try to get to showdown, as against a tricky and skilled no limit player you will be put to the test constantly if they smell even the slightest weakness. If you assume that this player will probably fire at least two barrels at the pot, all the times you hit a pair you are actually going to have to put in vastly more money than the initial odds appear (you may well lose between fifty and one hundred big blinds later on in the hand), and as a result habitually calling with hands like king ten in this spot is a big mistake against astute players - despite the initial price looking quite attractive.

Poker is a game where getting to showdown can be extremely expensive. Many players tend to just play one street at a time, looking at what is going on their and then but failing to take into account what their opponent will do on subsequent streets and how this affects their hand. Although this is less of a problem in limit games, where you can only lose a certain number of big blinds if you check call, in no limit and pot limit games not understanding this principle will make you lose very quickly, as the number of big blinds you stand to lose by check calling every street is usually around one hundred.

Think about your opponents likely behavior on subsequent streets before you look at the nice price in offer - it may be that you are getting sucked into something vastly more unattractive than the initial proposition.

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