Marcus Bateman / Marcus Bateman / 26 March 2009 / 3 Comments

Most of the discussion in poker about luck comes down to individual hands. 'My aces got cracked by kings' or 'he hit his back door flush draw after making a ludicrous flop bluff' are typical stories from players who claim to be running bad.

Analysing how many bad beats you had in a session is very easy, but trying to work out how lucky you got in the hands that didn't go to show down is much harder.

Although luck plays a big part in the hands that get to showdown, most hands in poker do not get to showdown, and the luck you get in the majority of concealed hands is arguably much more important than the luck you get at showdown. It is extremely important that you understand and analyse this element of luck in your game, as you can happily make mistake after mistake that luck hides for you on the most part, yet ones which will still be costing you lots of money over the long run.

Say you are playing a bit of cash poker and decide to raise ace four off suit from under the gun +1. The big blind defends and checks on a raggedy looking board. You fire out a continuation bet and they quickly fold. In your head this all seems like a well played hand because you won the money, but in reality you have really just got pretty lucky, because a catalogue of things actually went right for you in this hand for you to be able to win it.

The first way you got lucky was that no one behind you re-raised. Your hand obviously plays terribly against any re-raiser's range, and had there been such a raise, you would have lost your initial opening bet (or maybe more had you chosen to call).

Secondly, had the big blind either hit a part of the flop, or decided to make a play at the flop, your hand would again be in a lot of trouble. Had the big blind chose to check raise you on the flop, you would have now lost both your initial open and a continuation bet - all because of circumstances conspiring against you.

Finally, you could well have hit an ace on the flop and lost to a better ace from the big blind, who could well have a hand like ace eight or better. In this situation it may very well be the case that missing the flop saved you money.

Poker is a game where plays have to be made in the context of what is the optimal line over a very long run. You can easily go for days and days playing badly and still winning, simply because of the element of luck that is hidden from you. Analysing how many bad beats you had in a session is very easy, but trying to work out how lucky you got in the hands that didn't go to show down is much harder.

Really try to think about hands in terms of not only the luck you can see, but also the luck that you can't - it may well be that a lot is going on behind the scenes in your game.

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