Random Walks Part Two: Bold Play
Marcus Bateman
/
Marcus Bateman /
02 March 2009 /
Leave a Comment
Random walks show us not only how to behave in order to realise a small edge in the long run, but they also give us a way to negate a great deal of an opponent's skill if we need to try and beat someone who holds an edge over us in the short term.
We can see from how wildly random walks differ from the actual odds of an event quite clearly from any of the numerous graphs available.
What this teaches us about poker is that we need a significant bankroll in order to be able to get through the long periods where randomness takes us well below our statistical expectation. Always remember that cash is to a poker player like ammunition is to a soldier - once you run out you are in serious trouble unless you can quickly find some more.
If you are a recreational player this poses you no problems, as you can simply reload from your other source(s) of income, but if you are thinking of turning pro it is imperative you fully understand the variance random walks will take you on and behave accordingly.
So in order to be able to realise the small edge you have over other players, you need to have adequate money in order to cope with the variance so that your edge can survive intact to be realised over time. This concept also has an interesting flip side which every poker player needs to understand - that of when you do not have an edge against a player.
Imagine you satellite into the WSOPE, through a mixture of skill and luck manage to find yourself heads up at the final table with Phil Ivey. Here you clearly have no edge, as Phil Ivey is arguably one of the best players in the world right now. What should be the correct strategy in order to give yourself the best chance of winning? The answer is to play in the complete opposite way you would if you had an edge. In this situation you should constantly be trying to get Phil Ivey into big pots quickly and with basically any two cards - forcing him into giving up most of his skill edge in favor of forcing him to test his luck in a pre flop all in (where clearly no skill is involved once the cards are on their backs).
Random walks show us not only how to behave in order to realise a small edge in the long run, but they also give us a way to negate a great deal of an opponent's skill if we need to try and beat someone who holds an edge over us in the short term. By understanding what consequences random walks have on poker you can maximize your winnings against weak players as well as minimizing your losses when up against stronger ones - and this all adds up to profit in the long run.
Random Walks Part One - Importance to Poker Players
Get Valueback at Betfair Poker
Read More Poker
The Floating Explosion
One of the key changes that has affected all games in the last twelve months or so has been the massive increase in the number of players refusing to believe flop bets. It used to be the case that weak...
Flatting with aces in PLO
This is one of the hardest things to drill into good Hold'em players when they start playing Pot Limit Omaha - learning to flat with aces in many situations. Although there is certainly a time and a place to flat...
How to play a good or bad card on the turn or river
Most players are aware of how 'good' or 'bad' a card can be on the turn or river in Hold'em or Omaha. Good cards can throw up great bluffing opportunities, make your hand much safer to proceed with, or make...
The Three Poker Sites Who May Have Messed It Up For Everyone
For anyone who talked about how softened the internet generation were to gambling compared to the old Texan road players, the events of the last few weeks in poker have certainly hardened everyone who may have not seen the darker...
