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Poker Pride and Warfare

Marcus Bateman RSS / Marcus Bateman / 20 February 2009 / 2 Comments

On the 30th of November 1943 Adolf Hitler made what is now regarded as one of the greatest mistakes in military history.

" On some days you will lose despite doing everything right, on other days you will win even when playing very badly, and other days you will break even despite playing flawlessly."

By refusing permission to the troops encircled in Stalingrad to retreat, he effectively sealed the fate of close to 300,000 of his soldiers - a loss which effectively ended any chance Germany had of beating Russia and of winning The Second World War. The reason he chose to not allow his men to break out was not a strategic one (Hitler's generals almost unanimously agreed that a breakout was the only realistic option available), but one based on pride - Hitler simply could not bring himself to leave the city bearing the name of his arch rival.

So what has this got to do with poker? Well it clearly shows the severity of what pride can do the mindset of someone - even one surrounded by groups of experts in their fields all of whom disagree with them. Poker and warfare share many similarities in how people must approach decision making if they wish to be successful over their opponents - calm and clear decision making is critical. Pride is one of the most key emotions that a player has to be able to distance themselves from if they want to maximize their win rate. Being able to make calm and rational decisions under extreme stress is the hallmark of great generals and poker players alike.

This is particularly pronounced when playing heads up games. Just as it was between Stalin and Hitler, when you only have one clear rival that you are trying to beat pride can quickly overcome your rational mind as you pursue victory. In poker (and in warfare for that matter), you can never win everything. On some days you will lose despite doing everything right, on other days you will win even when playing very badly, and other days you will break even despite playing flawlessly. The important part of poker is in winning the war - each battle is largely irrelevant.

Allowing pride to cloud your mind, playing for much longer than you intended or for much higher stakes than you are used to, just to prove that you are better than someone will nearly always end in tears. The person who is the best in poker is simply the person with the most money - no one match or one days play will ever give a good indication of true ability unless one player is vastly superior to the other (even in this case the basic mathematical variance will often let the bad player win on a day to day basis). Keep your head clear, remember that pride nearly always comes before a fall in poker and just focus on playing your best in the best games available.

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Comments (2)

  1. The History Teacher | 21 February 2009

    Yes, very good analogy - game of cards v armageddon deciding the fate of the western world!

    Pride definitely a problem but Hitler's decision was based on the previous winter - 1941 - when his armies outside Moscow were surrounded in a Soviet counter offensive. He ordered them stay put and resupplied from the air successfully. He thought this was possible for the Stalingrad Kessel - Goering (Head of Luftwaffe) told him it was. Wrong.

    Hitler had already lost the war in USSR in 1941 when failed to capture Moscow. Poor logistics meaning they couldn't re-supply the panzer divisions quick enough, allowing Soviets vital time to re-group outside Moscow.

  2. Marcus Bateman | 23 February 2009

    Your comment is an extremely over simplified version of the events in Russia in the Second World War. Even amongst the very best historians their is considerable disagreement over which event actually can be seen as the turning point on the Eastern front. Martin Gilbert writes an excellent section about this in his book The Second World War, as does Joachim Wieder in Stalingrad: Memories and Reassessments (who was not only there but served many years in a Russian POW camp afterwards) if you are interested in viewing other sides of the debate.

    The point of this piece is not to debate when the tide turned (and Stalingrad is just a legitmate point as Moscow the year before to many world class scholars and survivors), more to highlight what a severe effect pride can have on people who are attempting to make rational and calculated actions. Even if the debate about whether Stalingrad lost the war or not is resolved, or if Hitler should have taken the advice of one general over many others, it is still the case that pride probably played a large part in influencing Hitler into making an extremely irrational and high risk gamble (either for the war or just for the lives of 300,000 of his men).

    There is a valuable lesson in this for high stakes gamblers, and I'm clearly not trying to compare playing cards to warfare in terms of the stakes being played, more the consequences of emotion on how the participants in either sphere act.

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