Over betting

Marcus Bateman / Marcus Bateman / 20 November 2009 / Leave a comment

Doyle Brunson - the original loose-aggressive player

With 'Isildur1' still taking on and beating all comers, it seems a good time to look at one of the aspects of his game that makes him relatively unique amongst the high stakes players - his tendency to over bet the pot frequently, particularly on the river

The key problem with over betting is that it is extremely hard to balance. If you only ever do it with nut hands (and there are a whole genre of low stakes players who only ever make this play with the nuts), your game becomes very easy to read...

Overbetting is an interesting strategy in no limit games, as it carries very high risks and rewards, and looking at how and why this sort of strategy has to be implemented to be successful can illuminate some great concepts in no limit games.

The key problem with over betting is that it is extremely hard to balance. If you only ever do it with nut hands (and there are a whole genre of low stakes players who only ever make this play with the nuts), your game becomes very easy to read, and any good player simply avoids calling these over pot size bets when you make them.

On the flip side, if you make this play even slightly too much with junk (and again, there are whole genre of low stakes players who lose fortunes using this move too much), you will be losing so much on each failed bluff that any reward you get from getting paid off occasionally will be lost with your endless massive failed bluffs.

As a result of this, most of the high stakes community left this play behind for the most part, instead choosing to make constant 1/2-3/4 of the pot size bets with bluffs and hands alike, constantly trying to give their opponents difficult prices and decisions. 'Isildur1' has shaken this up considerably in the last few weeks, and his use of over shoving has proved one of his key weapons in his assault on the established old guard.

As discussed in my previous article about poker hierarchy and the island phenomenon, a player from a new environment often has an extra weapon in their tool kit that other players have either not thought of, or ruled out as being too risky and difficult to use.

It looks so far that 'Isildur1' is one of the first players at these stakes to be able to balance over shoving well, and it is putting a lot of high stakes players in trouble, simply because if pulled off correctly it is a very hard move to play against, as just a few mistakes in calling/folding can add up to huge sums of money due to the size of the pot and bet.

Historically, the first player to master the high risk/reward moves in poker nearly always shifts the current paradigm of what is the correct strategy somehow. Be it Doyle Brunson first introducing the power poker style of constantly attacking the small pots, and being able to free roll in many of the larger pots through winning so many smaller ones; or Stu Ungar introducing the hyper loose aggressive style that won him so many high stakes tournaments; moves which were previously seen as too reckless and difficult to master in poker often can be shown to be successful in very skilled hands, and it looks like 'Isildur1' may well have introduced a new one to the high stakes scene with devastating results.

Related entries

Who is Isildur1?
Talking about hands
Dealing with regulars

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