Consensus

Marcus Bateman / Marcus Bateman / 13 August 2009 / Leave a Comment

Poker is a game that is very similar to society in general in that it is always in flux. The best players are always looking to understand not only where the game is and was, but also where it is going.

Poker is like any society, in that it comes to general consensuses over how and why to behave, which change gradually over time until previous views on what were right and wrong are barely recognisable to the current ones.

In regular society this is pretty obvious. Just think about how radically different we look at criminal justice today compared to three hundred years ago. Then, public hanging was standard for relatively minor offenses, there was no police force, and whole swathes of country land were regarded as lawless.

In poker these changes are a little more subtle than this, but they still are there. One of the best examples of this is in bet sizing. Although one of the truly great things about no limit hold'em is the ability to bet as much as you want, when you want; to stop your game becoming exploitable, mostly you are betting similar percentages of the pot - typically between half and the full pot. Even five years ago, many players - even up to the high stakes games - were making massive mistakes in these areas, either betting pot or more every time, or just making tiny Phil Hellmuthesque minimum bets - both of which are easy styles to exploit in the long run.

As there was no real consensus amongst players as to the exact correct strategy (this topic is hardly even covered in Super System by Doyle Brunson - the key text in those days for aspiring hold'em players), players were making massive mistakes in these areas without it impacting their game that much, as most players were all making similar mistakes (thus canceling out the effect somewhat). As a group of players started to realise how exploitable bet sizing mistakes were, they developed their own style of sizing, which in turn helps them to become very successful players.

These players are then emulated by their peers, and the number of mistakes being made in that area goes down considerably. A consensus has been reached for the moment, and most players feel content that this is now the correct strategy. However - and this is where it gets interesting - this consensus will not last, as the very best players will start developing new strategies to counter what everyone else is doing. These players will profit from the old consensus until a new one is formed and they have to re-adapt or die.

Poker is a game that is very similar to society in general in that it is always in flux. The best players are always looking to understand not only where the game is and was, but also where it is going. By thinking carefully about what the established modes of thought are of your opponents, and then trying to think of ways round them, you put yourself in the best possible position to win the most money possible, and the desire to win money is the one consensus that will never change in poker.

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