A pot odds problem

Marcus Bateman / Marcus Bateman / 15 October 2008 / Leave a Comment

This particular mistake is one that many starting players seem to make - and is one that will cost you a fortune if you don't recognise it and adjust to it. I used to habitually make this mistake until I read some of the work of the great high stakes player Barry Greenstein, who in simple terms explained what the problem is and how math is often misused in poker. The problem surrounds pre flop odds when in the blinds, and it has key implications on your game.

Say that you are playing $5/$10 limit hold'em and you are in the big blind with a junk hand. The button raises to $20. You are getting 3 to 1 odds on your money if you call. No hand is a three to one underdog to the buttons raising range (which is very large) - so you should call right? Wrong.

The problem is that although you are getting great odds on your money at this point in the hand, for the rest of the hand you will not be. As once you are on the flop all the money will be bet in equal units you can start to see the problem. 99% of the time the hand will not be checked down, so in order to get to a showdown you will have to call bets laying you much worse odds.

In fact, if you were to call down every street with a junk hand, you are putting in six units to win eight - which is around 1.3 to 1 - a much worse price than the initial 3 to 1 that enticed you to call (notice this is not the right price to call a raise pre flop with junk against the buttons range of hands as well).

This is a basic trick of psychology, and one that is used constantly by banks, and has basically caused the sub prime mortgage crisis. Banks offer you a great introductory offer (the pre flop price), on a house you can't really afford to buy (the hand that is too weak to play), and then jack up your mortgage rate for the most part of the mortgage (all the subsequent streets of betting), leaving you with equally unpalatable options - either selling your house and losing everything (folding your hand), or trying to pay over the top rates in the vain hope that you will be able to possibly keep your house (calling down and hoping to win).

As we can see from the sub prime crisis, this is not a very good idea in any walk of life, and in poker it is a major leak that has to be noticed and recognised. Always think about not only about the price you are being given at the time, but about the price of the whole hand - it may be that you are digging a hole you could easily have avoided.

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