Pot odds are not scary!

Bloggers / Matthew Pitt / 24 November 2008 / Leave a Comment

As you are probably aware, poker is built on a base of mathematics and grasping the fundamentals will give you an edge over any casual Tom, Dick or Harry who decides to sit at your table.

I have been reading forums and message boards all over the world and there are always posts from new players who seem to be perplexed by the very name of pot odds! On the surface they may seem difficult but when all is said and done, all you need to work them out is basic arithmetic.

Pot odds are the ratio of the current size of the pot and the cost to a player contemplating making a call. For example, if the size of the pot you could win right now is $100 and it would cost you $10 to call then your pot odds are 100-to-10, or simplified as far as they can go 10-to-1, often displayed as 10:1.

You can use odds to determine whether making a call has a positive expectation, that is, will making the call make you money in the long run. Let's say that you have been dealt Ace-King of spades, the board reads 3s 5c Ts 7d and after all the betting there is $20 in the pot and it will cost you $4 to see the river. To keep things simple, we will assume that you have a brilliant read on your opponent, so brilliant that you know that he has a pair of aces 100% of the time here, meaning that in order to win the pot, you have to hit one of the remaining nice spades in the deck.

The odds of a spade arriving on the river is roughly 4:1 and the odds the pot is offering you is 20/4 or 5:1, therefore you can make the call as in the long run you will make money from it. Why do you make money? Well, in the example, four times you will bet $4 and no spade will come, losing you $16 but when the spade falls you will win the entire $20 which covers your losses. Obviously, you can go on streaks where flushes come in like there is no tomorrow and other times when it seems you never hit your outs but on average, the odds of hitting a flush on the river is around 4:1.

To summarise, if the odds the pot are offering you are greater than the odds of you making your hand, you can profitably call, even if you lose the actual hand. You may find this chart (more...) handy if you are just starting out in Texas Hold'em. It is very easy to learn and will become invaluable to you in the future.

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