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Olympics Women's Football Final Preview: Brazil v USA

Eurosport's football commentator Dave Farrar has been mightily impressed by Brazil throughout the tournament. How does he think they'll fare in Thursday's final? Read on...

Those of you who followed the advice on betting.betfair.com at the start of these Olympic Games and backed Brazil at [4.2] to win the Women's Football tournament in Beijing need not invest again. You're sitting on a great bet, and I'm sure that it will be a winning one. There's no need for those of us with that price, even the cautious ones, to consider laying Brazil now, and I'm going to back them to win tomorrow's final at what I consider to be a massive price.

The performances of Marta and co at these Olympic Games have moved the women's game on in the same way that Mia Hamm and Brandi Chastain did in the 1990s. Brazil have been a joy to watch, with the creativity of Marta and Daniela, and the lethal finishing of Cristiane beautifully balanced by their midfield destroyers. Formiga is the engine of this team, the Dunga of old, and she has been my player of this championship. She and Marta will be the key players in the final.

The only doubt that you can possibly have with Brazil is that they are yet to win a major tournament, and have shown signs of choking a little when it comes to getting over the line. Marta's missed penalty in the last World Cup Final is a case in point, but that German team was an entirely different prospect from this USA one.

The USA were awful in their opening game against Norway, but that defeat actually helped them get a much easier draw. They disposed of Canada in the quarter finals, needing extra time to do so, and were always favourites to beat Japan in the semi-final, although they fell behind before they were able to overpower a spirited Japanese team.

Japan are probably the most improved team in the women's game, but they're still operating on a level below the five or six best countries in the world. If you're a lover of statistics, then you'll steer clear of Brazil, as they have won only twice in 26 matches against the USA, and lost the Olympic final four years ago. They also lost two recent friendlies by a single goal, but Brazil's three stars didn't play in these games, and so they can't be used as a reliable form guide. The best pointer to this match is last years World Cup semi-final, also played in China, in which Brazil humiliated USA by four goals to nil. Both teams were at full strength then, and Brazil showed how much better they are than their American counterparts.

If you didn't back Brazil at the start of the tournament, then the [2.12] available for them to win the final in 90 minutes is staggering value. You have the chance to back one of the best teams in the history of the sport, playing at their peak, against a USA side missing its best player, Abby Wambach, and which has lost to the only decent team it has played against at these Olympics. It can only be the USA's record of winning two Olympic gold medals in Women's Football that is convincing punters to lay Brazil at that price. I see Brazil winning by two or three clear goals, and that [2.12] is the best bet of the Olympics so far.

The bronze medal match takes place before the final, and Germany are hot favourites to beat Japan. There's a chance that the Germans might still be on a downward spiral after Brazil tore them apart in the semi, but I can't justify backing Japan at [6.0], well though they've done here.

The one play in this game is to go over 2.5 goals at [1.84] or slightly better if you can get it matched. Japan's three group games produced 11 goals, including a 5-1 defeat of Norway, and both of their knockout matches were open, entertaining affairs.

Selections:

Back BRAZIL to win in 90 minutes at [2.12].

Over 2.5 goals in GERMANY v JAPAN at [1.84].

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BRAZIL to win Gold at [4.2]