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Olympics Betting: Women's football

On the morning when the FA announced that Britain will enter a team in the men's football at the London Olympics in 2012, the Beijing games kicks off with the Women's tournament. Dave Farrar fills us in.

For national women's teams, an Olympic gold medal is the second biggest prize in the sport after a World Cup. This is not about Under 23s and overage players, this is the real thing, and as a spectacle it will be the best that women's football has to offer.

It's a shame that once again the format of the Olympic tournament slows the drama in the early matches. The Group phase will see 12 teams reduced to 8, and with New Zealand and Argentina certain to be knocked out, effectively it will take 18 games to send two teams home.

Women's football is still a developing sport, though, and the strength in depth is improving by the year, and we should celebrate the most open Olympic tournament ever, with seven teams who could realistically win.

The beauty of it all from a betting point of view is that there is a direct form guide in the shape of the Women's World Cup which was played in Beijing at the end of last year.

Germany beat Brazil in the final by a two goal margin, but not before the best female footballer on the planet, Marta, had missed a penalty for Brazil. Germany are the outstanding team in Women's Football, but the margins were a lot tighter than they sometimes looked at China 07, even though the Germans won the tournament without conceding a goal.

Germany and Brazil are drawn together, along with the dangerous Korea and Nigeria. The Nigerians were poor at the World Cup and seemed to struggle in the conditions and there's no reason to presume that it will be any different here. Germany, Brazil and Korea should make it through to the quarter finals and the way the draw works is that if Brazil and Germany can see off Sweden and Norway in the quarter finals then they will meet in the semis. This is, by some distance, the tougher half of the draw.

The USA were terribly disappointing in losing 4-0 in the semi finals of the World Cup to Brazil, and they will be without the wonderful Abby Wambach who leads their line so well. They have an excellent draw, though, and their probable semi final against the hosts China could be one of the best spectacles of the whole Olympics. China went out of the World Cup to Norway at the quarter final stage but they were a little unlucky to do so, and they will have improved again between the end of that tournament and the start of the Olympics. The young Chinese players have been training fiercely for the the Games for the last four years, and they can be forgiven that poor showing at the World Cup, as their eyes have always been fixed a Gold in Beijing.

The two semi finals are likely to be Germany v Brazil and USA v China with Sweden and Norway the likely dangers to this scenario. If the Scandinavian teams were to meet the USA or China in the quarters then I would give them a chance, but I just can't see them taking out Germany or Brazil.

Our Olympic staking plan has to be based on value and that means that China are a must bet at [12.0]. The pressure of the Olympics on the horizon has led to some poor results in the build up and a change of coach, and this is a young side, but every decent bet requires a leap of faith and so I'll take them to get used to tournament football in the Group stage and show their best form in the knockout part of the tournament. They are much too big a price.

On the other side of the draw, I never thought that I would find myself opposing Germany in a big football tournament, but I feel that a changing of the order may well be on the cards. Brazil came very close to winning the World Cup and with Marta and Cristiane they will have one of the best attacking combinations on view. They are currently trading at [4.2] and they are my other pick to win gold in Beijing.

Many of you will be cynics on the subject of the women's game, but my advice is to remember not to judge what's on show by the standards of pace and power in men's football. It's a different sport, full of skill and subtlety, and if you give it a go, you may just be surprised how much you enjoy it.

Recommendations

Brazil to win Gold at [4.2]

China to win Gold at [12.0]