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Olympics Football Preview: Men's groups

Dave Farrar looks at the groups and predicts who will be qualifying for the knockout stages and who will be going home early.

GROUP A

Ivory Coast, Argentina, Australia, Serbia

Group A should be a walk in the park for Argentina, but their price reflects that. Sergio Batista's squad are rightly the warm favourites to win the gold medal in Beijing and I just can't see anything to trouble them here. The Australians have a squad which is built up largely of players from their substandard home league, although I am delighted to see a place at the Olympics for 29 year old Archie Thompson, who famously scored 13 goals in an international match. The Ivory Coast were the most impressive of the three African qualifiers and they have the best chance of emulating Nigeria and Cameroon in winning Olympic gold, but I'm not as convinced by the African youth teams this year as I have been at previous Games. The Serbians are my idea of the team that will qualify along with Argentina. They were excellent in reaching the final of the UEFA Under 21 Championships last summer and have the brilliant Alexander Kolarov at the back and one of the tournament's potential stars Zoran Tosic up front. I think that Argentina and Serbia will make it through to the quarter finals, and having backed Argentina to win the tournament outright, my advice here is to back Serbia to qualify at [2.2]

GROUP B

HOLLAND, NIGERIA, JAPAN, USA

Three of the Groups have fairly obvious winners, but Group B is the most open, and the one that is most likely to provide us with a decent priced winner. The Dutch are the European Champions, and have some big names in their squad, including Ryan Babel and Royston Drenthe and most importantly, the man who will knit this team together, Hedwiges Maduro.

There is some serious opposition to the favourites though, and they look the most vulnerable of all the jollies. Nigeria were the last of the African teams to qualify, and their squad is largely made up of the team which reached the final of the 2005 World Under 20 Championship. They will provide a challenge, but I just wonder to what extent that group of young players has "trained on", and I'd rather avoid them. This is the USA team that got to the last eight of last years World Under 20 Championship, and they will be highly motivated to prove themselves on a stage as big as this.

Forget the hype around Freddy Adu because Michael Bradley and Jozy Altidore both have the potential to be big stars here, and this young USA team have a real chance of causing a shock or two in Beijing. I'm backing the USA to win the group at [5.5] and to qualify at [2.3]

GROUP C

CHINA, NEW ZEALAND, BRAZIL, BELGIUM

The presence of Ronaldinho and Robinho has ensured plenty of hype around Brazil. I think that there are weaknesses in the Brazil squad, but I'm not sure that they'll be exposed in Group C. We can write off New Zealand, and that leaves the hosts along with Belgium as the two challengers to Brazil.

China have put a great deal of money and hard work into youth football, and have produced a strong well organised team. I've seen a lot of these young Chinese players at all age groups and two things have always struck me. The first is that they lack inspiration in the final third of the pitch. They dominate teams because of their physical strength and rigid system, but sometimes seem unable to strike the knockout blow. What they wouldn't give for just one of the playmakers of Brazil or Argentina.

The other thing that has plagued them is their lack of self discipline. Expect high bookings counts and red cards when China play. For those reasons, I'm going to take a chance on Belgium to qualify with Brazil. They'll be led from the back by the brilliant Vincent Kompany, and Moussa Dembele will provide a forward threat. Their young players don't seem to be as affected as the seniors by persistent underachievement and so I'm taking them to qualify behind Brazil at [2.2]

GROUP D

KOREA, CAMEROON, HONDURAS, ITALY

Italy are my fancy in the outright market behind Argentina, and one of the reasons is that their habit of starting slowly at big tournaments is less of a problem here as they have been drawn in the easiest group. I think Italy will have enough to win the group, but I can't advocate backing them at a short price because they may take a game to get going. It's going to be an interesting battle to see who will qualify with them and I'm going to take a punt and suggest Honduras. I haven't had a chance to see this young side, but they were good enough to beat the USA in qualifying and there is a real confidence surrounding them. There are enough weaknesses in both Cameroon and Korea to make Honduras a cautious selection to qualify at [4.0]

Recommendations

Serbia to qualify from Group A at [2.2]

USA to qualify from Group B at [2.3] and to win Group B at [5.5]

Belgium to qualify from Group C at [2.2]

Honduras to qualify from Group D at [4.0]