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Olympics Betting: Men's Rowing Preview

Jack Houghton is not short of opinions when it comes to this year's Olympic rowing competition. So we asked him to sit down and put them on (virtual) paper for you.

World Championship performances are the best predictor of Olympic success. In Athens in 2004, seven of the eight men's rowing events were won by nations who had placed first or second in the 2003 World Championships in Milan. Given press attention around changing personnel within certain boats - such as Britain's Alex Gregory subbing for injured Steve Williams in the men's four build-up - it might seem counter-intuitive to base form decisions on results a year out of date. But, the prescience of World Championship performances demonstrates it is the pool of rowers a nation draws on, rather than a specific crew make-up, that is significant in determining Olympic accomplishment.

So just pick the winners from Munich and back them blind then? Well, this approach may bring a few victories, but is unlikely to bring profit.

Take the Men's Lightweight Fours. Great Britain are the reigning World Champions and are favourite in some books to win Olympic Gold. However, their Munich victory was slightly fortuitous - poor pacing by the Italians and a weak Chinese team - and their form this year has been woeful: managing no better than a second at the first World Cup regatta. Britain, currently trading at [3.75], represent a value lay at any price up to [4.0]. Conversely China, previous World Champions and dominant in the two World Cup events they competed in this year, are the most likely winners and represent value at any price over [3.2].

The Single Skulls should be a shoot-out between New Zealand and the Czech Republic, with Kiwi legend Mahe Drysdale the most likely winner. The Betfair market is still forming, but backing him at any price bigger than [1.65] looks a solid play.

Nationalistic hope and heritage seems to be playing a bigger part in the price of Britain's Men's Four than form and ability. The [3.0] currently available is ludicrously short and should be laid. The team has been beset by injury and the likely Olympic line-up has only raced together once in major competition: finishing second in a weak affair in Poznan. New Zealand (current World Champions) and the Netherlands are the most likely winners, and [4.5] or bigger on either team should be taken.

The Double Skulls should go the same way as the single skulls, with New Zealand representing value at [2.2] or bigger. Rob Waddell, the 2000 Olympic Single Skulls champion, has returned to the sport to find his old place occupied by the dominant Drysdale. Instead, he has teamed up with Cohen in the doubles to dramatic effect, easily winning the last two World Cup races and remaining undefeated this year.

The Men's Eight looks complicated. Whilst Canada, reigning World Champions and convincing in their only international race this year at the World Cup in Lucerne, are the most likely winners, the [2.74] currently available does not contain enough fat to account for the uncertain ability of competing crews. Most nations view this as the blue riband of rowing and invest a disproportionate amount of time and talent into trying to win it. The USA boat contains its best rowers and, although not seen in international competition since 2007, will be well prepared. Australia won the World Cup in Munich, with Britain taking the honours in Poznan. China got a silver and bronze in their two World Cup attempts and Germany were second in last year's World Championships. All in all, it's a bit muddy. The market is still very illiquid, but backing China for a podium finish at anything over [3.5] might be the best play.

The Men's Pairs is hard to decipher. The Australian crew have been dominant in recent years but were trounced by a new Canadian team at Lucerne. That is probably explained by the crews being in different training cycles for that race, and unless you could get [9.0] or bigger about Canada (which is unlikely), I would see it as a no bet event.

The Men's Quadruple Skulls revolves around the uncertain form of reigning World Champions Poland. They are likely to be [1.8] shots, which looks about right, and so a no bet is probably the percentage call.

That leaves the Men's Double Lightweight Skulls. Britain are under-priced at around [3.0], but I would not want to be opposing them with a Danish crew who have looked weak this year. It's an event that is hard to price up.

For a preview of the women's rowing, click here.

Here is a summary of Jack's advice: