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Olympic Betting: Hit the road Jack

Tour de France buff and general cycling aficionado Jack Houghton is wondering whether the superstars of the Spanish team can gel into the unstoppable force they have the potential to be.

Men's Road Race

When US Captain Hal Sutton paired Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson - then the two dominant world golfers - in the 2004 Ryder Cup, it seemed, in theory at least, an unbeatable partnership. However, the two of them looked about as comfortable as Max Mosley in a synagogue, losing their opening two matches and demonstrating that individual talent alone is no guarantee of team success.

At the crux of deciding the winner of the Men's Olympic Road Race on Saturday is a similar conundrum: can the Spanish team, certainly the most talented group of riders ever assembled in one entity (and arguably the most talented team ever assembled in any sport), direct their individual gifts towards victory for a team member? It might mean some in the team adopting unfamiliar support roles and, at this stage, it's not clear who will be prepared to do that.

Take Carlos Sastre and Alberto Contador. Winners of the last two Tours De France, they're used to having their races marshalled for them by lieutenants and domestiques, but are they ready to fulfil those roles themselves? Oscar Freire, winner of the Tour's Green Jersey, and Samuel Sanchez, 7th overall in the Tour, may be less precious. Nonetheless, will they sacrifice themselves for the most likely winner of the race: their team-mate, Alejandro Valverde?

Valverde, favourite in many people's eyes for this year's Tour De France but ultimately disappointing, is a specialist at winning one-day road races of the type that faces medal hopefuls in Beijing. Twice winner of the Liege Classic and recent winner of the Classica San Sebastian, he would seem to have all the gifts necessary to take gold. However, crucial in that San Sebastian win was the assistance Valverde received from Vladimir Karpets. Having missed an early break, Karpets rode his Spanish team-mate back to the business end, where he was able to launch an impressive winning sprint.

I'm prepared to trust the Spanish team will recognise they have a perfectly-equipped rider in their midst, and will help set the race up for Valverde. I will be having a few bets in the race, with Valverde the centrepiece; carrying 50 per cent of my money at [5.0] or bigger.

So why is Valverde so ideally suited to the Beijing course? After a sight-seeing jaunt around the city the first third of the race is a relatively flat ride out to Juyongguan, whereupon riders begin the first of seven 520m climbs and descents making up a 24km hilly loop, before proceeding on to the Juyong Pass for the final sprint. At 245km in total, it is the most arduous Olympic course in history.

Those expecting the same winning names as picked up sprint victories in the Tour De France, like Great Britain's Mark Cavendish, will be disappointed. This is effectively a climbers course. The loop requires riders to climb half the height of the infamous L'Alpe D'Huez in approximately three-quarters of the distance travelled - but repeated seven times! Then there's a 700m, uphill sprint finish. So basically the winner will be a renowned ascender with a sprint, and Valverde qualifies in both departments.

Defending Olympic champion, Paolo Bettini, has avoided tours this year in order to concentrate on the one-day road races that would prepare him best for a repeat victory. However, whilst he is likely to be competitive, he could only finish fourth to Valverde when easily out-sprinted in San Sebastian, and so, at [5.1], doesn't represent any value.

Should Valverde under perform, his team-mate and best descender in the field, Samuel Sanchez, would be Spain's best hope. I will be having 10 per cent of my money on him at [16.0] or bigger.

Two riders who consistently performed well in mountain stages of this year's Tour were the Luxembourg brothers of Frank and Andy Schleck. Franck led the Tour prior to the attack of Sastre on L'Alpe D'Huez and looks ideally suited to the Beijing course. Andy, who created many of the defining attacks on the big climbs, looks a similarly strong contender. I'm a little worried how these Northern Europeans will cope with the heat, humidity and pollution likely to greet riders, but feel this is more than factored into their price. I will be having a further 10 per cent of my stake on each at [34.0] (Franck) and [44.0] (Andy).

A rider who will likely have no problems with conditions is Columbian Santiago Botero. A previous King Of The Mountains winner at the Tour and multiple road race victor, he is exceptionally talented, if a little ill-disciplined. Now riding for an American domestic team, Red Rock; if he is fit, he will be a handful to the more fancied names on this course. My last 10 per cent will go on him at [150.0].


Women's Road Race

The women's race on Sunday is more difficult to interpret. At only 126.4km, it is conducted over the same course as the men, but with only two circuits of the hilly loop. This will make it more difficult for teams to put the hammer down and drop lesser climbers, making the result unpredictable and the event difficult to price up. This probably explains why none of the fixed-odds bookmakers are offering prices at the time of writing.

However, easily the most talented rider in the field is the 21-year old Dutch woman, Marianne Vos. Already a world champion indoors and on the road, anyone who saw her dominate the points race after a seemingly poor start at this year's World Track Championships in Manchester will realise she is something special. I will look to back her at any price above [3.5].


Here is a summary of Jack's advice: