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Track and Field Preview: Men's marathon

Only the men's marathon remains in the athletics on the final day of the Games. Jack Houghton has a long priced recommendation in his betting preview of the 26 mile showcase.

Saturday's action has all been previewed, so this last effort will focus on the Men's Marathon, which starts at 12.30am (BST) on Sunday, and brings to a close the athletics' programme at this year's Olympics.

In an article I wrote in early July, I spoke about the resurgence of US distance running. Unfortunately, I didn't follow the advice and so missed Shalane Flanagan's podium finish in the Women's 10,000m; but this closing event provides an opportunity to side with an American - at a big price - with a realistic chance of winning.

Ryan Hall, fifth in the London Marathon in April - where he set a new personal best of 2.06.17 - is the American in question. He will be taking part in only his fourth Marathon on Sunday - he was seventh in London in 2007 on his debut before winning the US Trial Race in New York last November - and clearly has the talent to go even faster than his London effort. Not that he'll have to to win this.

Marathon fans may be surprised that I'm not tipping up an established African - like Martin Lel or Sammy Wanjiru - who has a track record of winning the big city races in fast times.

But the reality is that winning marathons at major championships has very little to do with running fast times. Not since 1984 has an Olympic Marathon winner gone sub-2.10, and only two winners have ever done so. This is in an era which has seen the world best for the distance lowered to 2.04.26. And the World Championships paint a similar picture. Gharib won in 2.08 in Paris, but outside of that, the times have been typically slow. Kibet, who won in Osaka last year, only recorded a winning time of 2.17. That was in similar conditions to those that runners will face on Sunday and, given the Women's race here was won in a time more than ten minutes slower than the world best, a similar performance in the region of 2.15 could do the job here.

The reason for these (relative) pedestrian times is explained by the absence of pacemakers, who frequently force the major city marathons through the half-way point and beyond.

Furthermore, the best marathon runners don't always target the Olympic medal. When you can earn $500,000 (before bonuses) for winning the Dubai Marathon, why leave your race at the Olympics? It's for these reasons that I think one of the more high-profile marathoners won't get it done. Their minds, and training, will be partly focused on big paycheques in the autumn races: which is why a runner like Hall should be supported.

This is his major target of the year and he'll be prepared to leave everything on the road in trying to win it. It may well be a tactical affair, and so his fast times on the track will serve him well. He's run a 3.46 for 1,500m - likely faster than anyone else in this field could manage - and so a tight finish will hold no fears for him.

I recommend a 4pts bet on Ryan Hall in both the Win and Podium Finish markets at [20.0] and [6.0] respectively. A further play is to lay both Lel and Wanjiru in the Podium Finish market for 4pts each at [1.77] and [1.91] respectively. One might medal, but I think it highly unlikely both will, so the lays should return a profit.

Summary of advice:

Back Ryan Hall. 4pts at [20.0] in Win Market.
Back Ryan Hall. 4pts at [6.0] in Podium Finish Market.
Lay Martin Lel. 4pts at [1.71] in Podium Finish Market.
Lay Sammy Wanjiru. 4pts at [1.91] in Podium Finish Market.