Betfair Official Blog

Track and Field Preview: Day Six

Jack Houghton previews the men's races and tries to pick a winner within four centimetres.

Men's 800m

Early season fast times are historically a poor predictor of major championship honours. Time and again, those athletes posting fast times in Grand Prix events look all at sea when asked to compete without a pacemaker to take them through the first lap in 51 seconds. Take last year's World Championships. Hardly known beforehand, it was the Kenyan Yego who took gold, in a pedestrian 1.47.09, after Gary Reed had led through the bell in just 55.08. The market leaders for this event - Khamis, Borzakovskiy, Lopez and Kamal - may have all posted fast times this year, but only one of them, Borzakovskiy, even managed to make the final in Osaka, eventually finished third. I think a big priced runner will win this, and recommend laying Khamis for 4 pts at [2.88]. First and second in Osaka, Yego and Reed both represent value and I recommend 1 pt on each at [28.0] and [40.0] respectively.

Men's 5,000m

Bernard Lagat looked a fortuitous winner of last year's World Championship 1,500m and 5,000m double. Neither race was particularly strong and, in the 5,000m particularly, he was able to take advantage of an exceptionally slow pace to take the win. The presence of 10,000m gold medallist and 5,000m World Record holder, Kenenisa Bekele, means this is likely to be run fast, which will put the race out of the reach of those that finished close in Osaka. Bekele looks value at [2.56] and I recommend a 2pts bet. I was also going to put Tegenkamp up as a possible podium finisher, but an incomplete and illiquid market means he is probably best watched.

Men's Pole Vault

A compelling case could be made for any of Walker, Hooker, Lukyanenko. They dominate the World best jumps this year, but with only four centimetres between them, the market looks to have it right and no bet is recommended.

Summary of advice:

Lay Khamis in Men's 800m. 4pts at [2.88].
Back Yego in Men's 800m. 1pt at [28.0].
Back Reed in Men's 800m. 1pt at [40.0].
Back Kenenisa Bekele Men's 5,000m. 2pts at [2.56].