Betfair Official Blog

Track and Field Preview: Day Seven

Sprint queens Jamaica may not follow up 100m success. Jack Houghton runs through the best of Thursday's betting at the Bird's Nest...

Women's High Jump

Absolutely dominant for two years, an on-form Blanka Vlasic should comfortably win the Women's High Jump. She holds the top eight jumps in the world this year - 3cm ahead of her nearest competitor - and remains unbeaten in competition since winning the World Championship in Osaka last year. [1.21] looks about the right price and there is no value in opposing her. In terms of a bet, the best play is to bet on there being a new World Record. Vlasic holds a best of 2.07 - set in Stockholm last year - and has the talent to break Kostadinova's 2.09 mark. At [7.2], I recommend a 1pt bet on the record falling.

Women's 1,500m

Maryam Yusuf Jamal's task has been made easier by the absence of Yelena Soboleva due to doping test irregularities. But given that Jamal, World Champion in Osaka last year, is only third in the World Best lists this year, the [1.7], on first impression, looks short. Then you start looking at the opposition. That a Brit, Lisa Dobriskey, is fourth-favourite at [12.0], demonstrates the lack of strength in depth in this event, and Jamal's price starts to look more attractive. However, a case could be made for a few of these - including Gelete Burku and Shannon Rowbury - and the percentage call is no bet.

Women's 4x100m

The Women's 100m was a farce: Torri Edwards clearly false started, but was not called on it, and she did not run her race as a result. Muna Lee also failed to go through with her effort as a result. This one incident led to a Jamaican clean sweep and a massive overreaction by the World media who now seem to think that unless you wear a yellow shirt, you can't win a major sprint title. Let's not forget that the US has dominated sprinting for over 100 years, and the structures that have allowed that dominance haven't disappeared overnight. Yes, the dominance has been diluted - by the occasional talent from elsewhere - but they still represent a scary proposition in this sprint relay for any competitor. There should be little between the two prices, but Jamaica is a [1.42] shot with the USA on [5.0]. I recommend a 4pts back of the latter.

Men's Javelin

First and second in the World Championship last year, Tero Pitkamaki and Andreas Thorkildsen are rightful favourites for a repeat here. However, their combined price of around [1.33] looks on the short side. They have performed consistently this year, peppering the World Best lists. However, they do not top that list. Australia's Bannister threw a massive 89.02 in February of this year and, although he's been below that form on the European Grand Prix circuit this summer - his best being an 84.76 in Paris - he clearly has a championship winning throw in him when getting things right. There are also a host of other athletes throwing around the same 87m mark as the joint-favourites. Antti Ruuskanen, Sergey Makarov and John Robert Oosthuizen would all rate as massive scrabble scores, and a case could be made for either scoring here. The percentage call is to lay both Pitkamaki and Thorkildsen for 3pts each at [2.4] and [2.88] respectively.

Men's Decathlon

Bryan Clay is miles clear of this field and only misfortune or poor judgement can stop him winning. [1.4] is way too big - he should be half that price - and a 4pts bet is confidently recommended. It is also worth a speculative 1pt bet at [4.0] that the World Record of Roman Šebrle will fall. Clay got to within 200pts of it when winning the US Trials and this Beijing track has looked tremendously fast. Given that the Decathlon is dominated by sprint events, the World Record is achievable.

Men's 4x100m

Same as the women's equivalent, but with less confidence. The US men's team is certainly weaker this year, but their price is too big considering they still had two representatives in the individual final. I recommend a 1pt back at [4.3] on the US to restore some pride over Jamaica.

Summary of advice:

1pt back at [7.2] on New World Record in Women's High Jump.
4pts back at [5.0] on USA in Women's 4x100m.
3pts lay at [2.4] of Tero Pitkamaki in Men's Javelin.
3pts lay at [2.88] of Andreas Thorkildsen in Men's Javelin.
4pts back at [1.4] on Bryan Clay in Men's Decathlon.
1pt back at [4.0] on New World Record in Men's Decathlon.
1pt back at [4.3] on USA in Men's 4x100m.