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Track and Field Preview: Day Four

Only disaster will prevent Usain Bolt from doing the double, says Jack Houghton.

Women's Hammer

Much like many of the throwing evens at this year's Olympics, the Women's Hammer is difficult to accurately predict. There is less than a metre between the top four in the World this year and it is conceivable that any of ten throwers could produce the required winning distance on the day. Favourite and World number one this year, Miankova, no-marked during qualification in Osaka: demonstrating her fragility here. At [3.35] I couldn't be interested, and the likes of Moreno, Hrasnova and Pchelnik are similarly unappealing on current prices.

Men's 400m

Many will view Jeremy Wariner as a banker bet. Reigning Olympic and World Champion, he has looked a genuine prospect to eclipse Michael Johnson's World Record. However, although fastest in the world this year with 43.86, he is only marginally ahead of LaShawn Merritt on the clock; and that rival beat Wariner in the US Olympic Trials in Eugene. [1.42] and [3.45] about sums up this two-horse race, and no bet can be recommended.

Men's Triple Jump

Phillips Idowu is the most talented leaper in this field, holding the two best jumps in the World so far this year. But he bottled it in last year's World Championships - only finishing sixth - and [2.22] isn't a big enough price to account for a possible repeat performance. I couldn't be with him on that basis, but as the best in the field I couldn't be against him either. No bet.

Men's 200m

Usain Bolt will win. The 100m was his weaker event coming into this Olympics and only a disaster will prevent him doing the double. For many, Michael Johnson's World Record of 19.32 set in Atlanta looked a permanent edition to the annals, but Bolt can beat it here. At [2.22] I recommend a 1pt bet on there being a new World Record.

Men's 110m Hurdles

At [1.8], I recommend a 4pts bet on Cuban, Dayron Robles, to win this. Fourth in the World Championships last year, he holds five of the six best times run this season; including his new World Record of 12.87. That experience in Osaka will serve him well here, and he looks a massive price to be able to convert his early-season form into gold.

Many will point out that China's Xiang Liu - as twice World and reigning Olympic Champion - knows how to get things right at the major events, but his form so far this year has been woeful. Going into Osaka last year, he had already run a 12.92 in New York two months earlier. This time round however, his best is only 13.18 and, this sticky form, coupled with the enormous pressure of being an idol in China, make his current odds of [2.5] look ludicrously short. I can see him struggling to make the final and recommend a 4pts lay of Liu at [1.35] in the Podium Finish market.

Summary of advice:

1pt back at [2.22] that a new World Record will be set in Men's 200m.
4pts back at [1.8] on Dayron Robles to win Men's 110m Hurdles.
4pts lay at [1.35] of Xiang Liu in Men's 110m Hurdles.