Betfair Official Blog

Track and Field Preview : Day Five

The men's 1500m final is far more open than the betting suggests, says Jack Houghton.

Men's 1,500m Final

Having tipped Andy Baddely at [20.0] at the start of the track and field, it was encouraging to see him qualify comfortably for the final. I'm amazed to see that now, having qualified, his price is [50.0]. This is inexplicable, and I recommend going in again for a 2pts bet at this price. On the other hand, Ramzi - who won Baddely's heat - is massively underpriced at [1.86] and I recommend a 4pts lay. Basically, the heats and semi-finals have told us what we knew before the Olympics: there is very little between the best 1,500m runners in the world; and this final is far more open than the betting suggests.

Women's Javelin

First and second in last year's World Championships, and holding the best three throws (as well as a host of others in the top ten) in the World this year, it's hard to see beyond Spatakova or Obergfall as a likely winner of this. But their respective prices of [1.69] and [3.45] offer no value, and no bet is the play.

Women's Long Jump

Outside of her defeat in Madrid, Gomes has been the dominant World jumper this year; but with about 20 centimetres covering eight women in the season best tables, a case could be made for a number of potential winners here. Lebedeva won in Osaka last year, where Gomes was fourth, but the Russian hasn't been impressive so far this year. Kolchanova - second in Osaka and second in the season best lists - will be a danger, but, in an open event, the percentage call is to lay Gomes for 2pts at [2.14].

Women's 200m

Still smarting somewhat from a farcical 100m final that should have been voided, it's hard to assess the form of these women sprinters objectively. What's clear though is that the market has overreacted to Campbell's win in the 100m and the value call is to oppose her here. I recommend a 3pts lay at [2.46]. Allyson Felix is the most talented runner in this field and I recommend a 4pts back at [2.46].

Women's 5,000m

One of the most fascinating athletic rivalries occurs in this event between Meseret Defar and Tirunesh Dibaba. Dibaba won this event in the 2005 World Championships in Helsinki, but didn't compete when Defar won in Osaka last year. Dibaba, having won the 10,000m already, goes for the double here in an event in which she holds the World Record. She set that mark in Oslo this year, breaking Defar's previous best. Defar failed by just one second to regain that record in Stockholm. With a head-to-head score of 13-9 in favour of Defar, there is absolutely nothing between these athletes. Therefore they should be the same price. They're not. Dibaba is available at [2.78] and that's too big. I recommend a 3pts bet.

Summary of advice:

Back Andy Baddely in Men's 1,500m. 2pts at [50.0].
Lay Rashid Ramzi in Men's 1,500m. 4pts at [1.86].
Lay Naide Gomes in Women's Long Jump. 2pts at [2.14].
Lay Veronica Campbell-Brown in Women's 200m. 3pts at [2.46].
Back Allyson Felix in Women's 200m. 4pts at [2.46].
Back Tirunesh Dibaba in Women's 5,000m. 3pts at [2.78].