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The Contrarian: Why the USA won't win the Olympic 4x400 metres relay

The impossible can happen sometimes, can't it? Here, the Contrarian argues the case for USA ([1.06] to win), to NOT take the 4x400 metre relay...

Even the Contrarian, who would quite happily argue that the earth is more of a cube than a sphere, has a hard time finding good reasons why the Americans are going to botch the men's 4x400 metres relay.

On the last 11 occasions they've lined up to start the race at the Games, they've won them all.

They only missed out in 1972 when they were forced to withdraw after two of their runners were banned for inappropriate behaviour on the podium after the individual 400m, and in 1980 because of the US boycott. They have also won seven of the last eight races at the World Championships, with their only loss coming in 2003 when they actually won before being stripped of gold 15 months later due to Calvin Harrison's being found guilty of doping. So they're pretty good - but all streaks must end, and here's why the unthinkable will happen in the Bird's Nest.

Sort-of second favourites Bahamas have got closer since 2004

Some people seem to think Jamaica are an appropriate second favourite ([38.0] on Betfair), but they seem to have been so blinded by the overall Jamaican track performance that they've overlooked the fact that they don't have a great one lap relay team. In Athens, the USA coasted to victory, finishing just under five seconds clear of second-placed Australia and just under six ahead of the Bahamas (in sixth). However, at the 2005 World Championships in Helsinki, the Bahamas slashed that gap to just 0.31 seconds, recording a national best time of 2:57:32. They fell off the pace slightly at Osaka 2007, but still picked up silver.

And they are still narrowing the gap now

In their two qualification races to get into the Olympics, the Bahamas were the fastest team besides the USA in each race. In the first race they finished 3.62 seconds behind whereas in the second qualifier they trailed by just 1.19 seconds. Some might say this was because the USA took their foot off the gas once they knew there was no danger of not qualifying, and they'd probably be right. By the same token though, the Bahamas were all but guaranteed qualification too yet still managed to close the gap.

Brown outran Wariner in the 400 metre heats

The USA's Jeremy Wariner was the huge favourite to win the individual 400 metres; not such a surprise given that he is the reigning champion and America have won 11 of the last 12 (they didn't turn up in 1980, remember) and we all know what happened to him don't we? Another encouraging sign is that the last four 400 metres winners have not run as fast when they have returned four years later - not even Michael Johnson when he became the first to win consecutive 400m Olympic golds in 1996.

Great Britain's 400 metre runners are in good form too

Team GB had two athletes in the 400 metre heats - Martyn Rooney and Andrew Steele - and both were victorious in their heats. In fact, their combined average of 44.97 was faster than the three Americans combined average of 45.14. When you consider that Great Britain have already exceeded their own expectation of 10 to 12 gold medals, and are on something of a hysterical "no-one-can-stop-us-now" roll, anything less than perfection by the Americans could let someone in - and why not Team GB?

The USA are struggling to retain track and field medals in Beijing

The USA have so far attempted to defend three men's athletics golds that they won in Athens four years ago - the 100 metres, the 200 metres and the long jump - and they have lost all three. From those three events they have claimed two bronze medals whereas in 2004 they harvested three golds, two silvers and two bronzes from them. In Athens they took golds in eight of the 46 athletics events, which equalled 17.4% of the events, but they have taken just three from 26 so far in Beijing - 11.5%. USA track and field - your time is up.

Weird things happen

The USA are even hotter favourites than Usain Bolt was in the 200 metres. But strange things WILL happen from time to time. The USA will be super-confident in this race, which is when concentration starts to wander. All it takes is a dropped baton, and the gold goes to someone at a massive price.