Betfair Official Blog

Olympics Betting: General Guide To Track and Field Betting

Betting on the Olympics is unlike betting on anything else. Jack Houghton offers a valuable insight into some complex markets.

Dad insisted you should never bet on anything that talks. He reckons horses and dogs can be relied upon for their unreliability; whereas humans add a chaotic dimension impossible to account for. With this as his mantra, it explains why he was such a fan of Lester Piggott.

The problem with his no-talking philosophy is it means competing in markets that are incredibly knowledgeable. With information and analysis about horses and dogs so accessible, you have to work hard to find a profitable edge. And the same is true of many talkie sports: thousands of backers and layers aggregate their knowledge in tightly-priced markets, making ricks unlikely.

On the other hand, more marginal betting sports - like cycling, boxing and athletics - provide increasingly rare opportunities to profit from knowing more than the market. In athletics, few bookmakers offer betting outside of the big championships and so their expertise is naturally limited: they presumably don't employ someone to specialise in a sport they only offer occasionally. And unlike more established betting sports, where the exchange market sets prices for the fixed-odds bookmakers to copy, Betfair layers still seem to take their lead from the high-street when it comes to athletics. And time and again, a bit of research has shown the market to be wildly wrong when assessing the relative chances of competitors: as anyone who took the recommended [17.0] on Mikitenko winning this year's London Marathon will testify.

With the markets still illiquid, it's too early to recommend specific bets, but here are some things to bear in mind as the Olympic track and field start date of August 15th approaches:

The Olympics are different to anything else

Winning fast-run races in Grand Prix events is different to winning major championship gold. At every Olympics, overwhelming favourites - their reputations forged by speedy times in Berlin, Oslo and Rome - are turned over. Asked to compete in multiple qualifying races, with limited recovery, with pacemakers absent, with an expectant gold medal weighing them down, many fail to deliver on their early-season promise.

So although recent form needs to be taken into account, it should not be over-weighted. Performances in last year's World Championships need to be studied just as closely. Having said that, the US Olympic trials are the exception. Held over nine days in late-June/early-July, they mirror the programming athletes will face in Beijing and, with a "finish in the top three or you don't go" approach, you get to know something of how an athlete responds to pressure.

Knowing about athletics is different to knowing about betting on athletics

Fans of athletics thought the 2004 Olympic women's marathon a mere victory-lap for the already certain winner, Paula Radcliffe. I'm in danger of after-timing here, but in my opinion, this led to her being priced up far too short: her victories to then had come on flat courses in the cool spring and autumn of UK and US cities. A sweltering day and undulating course made her a huge lay in my book. True, I was a little nervous as she went to the lead, but ultimately her billing had greatly exaggerated her chance.

In the same race, the BBC commentary team seemed convinced Ndereba was about to reel in and pass the long-time leader, Noguchi, despite there being no evidence at continuous check-points that she was making up any time. Although forgetting the precise details, I couldn't believe my eyes when able to back an athlete at odds-against who had a 15 second lead with only a few miles to run. Surprise turned to astonishment when, a few minutes later, Noguchi was offered at an even bigger price despite, according to my watch, having increased her lead.

In my experience, people who know a lot about athletics are able to tell you who the favourite should be, but are rarely able to tell you what price they should be. This provides a massive edge for those able to apply their betting knowledge in a different setting.

Look for the weak races

Yes it's the Olympics, but there will still be a load of weak races. Different events go through transition stages where established stars retire and leave voids to be filled. Identifying those most likely to step up can prove hugely profitable. Take Kelly Holmes. With a degree of luck only matched by her ability to self-promote, this mediocre athlete was able to capitalise on finals devoid of any depth of talent to complete the 800m and 1,500m double. A fellow athletics' punter identified the opportunity and tried to convince me to join him by backing Holmes at double-figure odds in both events. Unfortunately, I couldn't bring myself to back this perennial whiner and excuse-finder, failing to grasp just how woeful her likely opponents were.

A runner I have more time for is Andy Baddeley. It's too early to make recommendations, but likely to be offered at a big price to win the 1,500m, the race looks like being uncharacteristically weak. Baddeley has impressed with his progress the last two seasons - especially his tactical astuteness - and would be interesting at anything over [14.0].

Ignore preconceptions about nation strengths

More than any other sport, I'm convinced that betting on athletics is massively influenced by the nationality of the athletes competing. Years of watching Americans win the sprints and Africans win the long-distance events lead the market to under-price compatriots competing today. Now I'm not saying the Africans won't do well in the long-distance events, and I'll be amazed if a US runner doesn't win the 400m, but there will be plenty of pricing mistakes predicated by a competitor's nationality.

The US is a good case in point. Famous for their sprinting dominance, their staying athletes haven't performed for over 30 years. And yet the last couple of seasons has seen a resurgence in US distance running that the betting market is likely to be unaware of come the Olympics. Again, it's too early to be specific, but the likes of Lagat, Hall, Goucher and Tegenkamp will all likely be overpriced come Beijing.