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Olympics Betting: Women's Athletics - Day Three - Radcliffe has it all to do

Jack Houghton is certain of two things when it comes to the women's marathon tomorrow: firstly the race is likely to be won in a time around 2.30, secondly the conditions on the day and her preparations mean Paula Radcliffe has it all to do...

Women's Marathon

This is confusing: a race where more thought doesn't necessarily bring more clarity. There are a number of factors confusing things. First, the race is likely to be won in a time around 2.30; nearly 15 minutes behind Radcliffe's World Best. To win most women's city marathons, you need to be capable of running in the low-2.20s. But here, the likely slow time, and desperately difficult conditions, will mean that virtually every runner in the field is capable of being there; on the clock at least.

Second, there's Radcliffe herself. If able to produce her best, she would annihilate this field. Unfortunately for her, conditions aren't optimum for her to produce her best and, the will-she-won't-she-run farce means we know she's far from peak form. It would be amazing if she won.

Third, there's the Chinese. Zhou, second in Osaka last year, is race favourite at [3.25]. She only finished second in the Chinese trials, seven minutes behind the winner, Cheng, but that runner - for reasons that aren't clear - doesn't line up here. Xiaolin Zhu, third in their trials and fourth in Osaka last year starts, as does Shujing Zhang, who won in Seoul this year in 2.26.11. You could have two attempts at naming the highest-placed Chinese runner; and still get it wrong.

Fourth, fifth, sixth... there are so many complications I just don't know what to write next. On form, Berhane Adere - the fastest in the field this year when winning in Dubai - and Gete Wami - the consummate racer - should fight it out. At [23.0] and [13.0] respectively, you might view that as value; but I just don't think form is going to play much of a role in deciding this race.

Slightly speculatively, I'll put up Shujing Zhang at [23.0] for a 1pt bet. But the best play might be to watch Radcliffe in-running. She's likely to go out fast - it's all she knows - and laying her at a short price if the market overreacts is the value call.

Women's 100m Hurdles

Although there is little between these women in terms of their best times this year - less than a tenth of a second covers the top five - that doesn't account for the 12.29 ran by Lolo Jones (wind assisted) when easily winning the US Trials. Wind or not, no one else in this field could run that, and at [3.5] Jones represents value. I recommend a 3pts bet.

Women's 400m Hurdles

The market has this spot on. Walker, Williams and Tosta recorded the three fastest times in the world when filling the top three positions in the Monaco Grand Prix. They should do the same here, but none of them represent value at the current prices.

Women's Triple Jump

Savigne looks a bit short at [1.84]. Although World Champion, she was beaten by Devetzi in Thessaloníki, where that jumper set the World's Best of 15.22 this year. Despite not holding that World's Best however, Savigne has consistently jumped better than anyone else, peppering the big jump tables. So I couldn't take her on with any conviction, and Devetzi, at [2.72], doesn't represent value to beat Savigne again.

Summary of advice:

Back Shujing Zhang in the Women's Marathon. 1pt at [23.0].
Lay Radcliffe in-running in the Women's Marathon at anything shorter than [3.0].
Back Lolo Jones in the Women's 100m. 3pts at [3.5].