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Olympics Betting: Men's Athletics - First Day's Preview

Jack Houghton previews the first day of athletics action from Beijing, and in so doing has a dig at the editors of betting.betfair. The cheek!

Men's Shot Final

With qualification and finals taking place tomorrow, the Men's Shot will be the first gold medal competed for in earnest. The USA look likely to dominate: its three representatives are the only putters in the field to ever go further than 22m, with Belarus' Mikhneivich the next best on show. Reigning World Champion Reese Hoffa is the most likely winner, but [2.8] looks to be about the right price. Christian Cantwell and Nelson Adam have both thrown further this year, but Hoffa won the US trials and there's no value in opposing him.

Men's 400m Hurdles

One of the most fascinating match-ups of the Games comes in the shape of the rivalry between Kerron Clement and Bershawn Jackson in this event. Clement is the reigning World Champion; a title Jackson won in 2005. This year there has been nothing between them. Clement has posted the fastest time, a 47.79 in Kingston, but Jackson won the US trials in Eugene, beating his rival by 17 hundredths of a second. Clement reversed that in Rome and Paris, similarly winning by fractions. Clement is exceptionally talented and not one to oppose lightly, but there is nothing between the two; except in price. On this basis I recommend a 1pt back of Jackson at [3.1].

Men's 1,500m

In my pre-Olympic preview, I said profit could be made by identifying weak races. It seems counter-intuitive to think such things exist at this level, but the men's 1,500m has that feel about it. Bernard Lagat, double World Champion in the 1,500m and 5,000m in Osaka last year, has shown a talent for putting it together when it matters, but few would claim he is a vintage World Champion. And there's no obvious emerging talent either. Choge and Kiprop both win their races, but there is no one to really scare the opposition in this event. That's why I recommend backing Britain's Andy Baddely for 4pts at [20.0]. He's a rapidly improving athlete; ninth in the World Championships last year; the one time he's taken on the big guys this season, he won the Bislett Dream Mile. He's yet to post a really good time, but as we've seen time and again at the Olympics, tactical acumen counts for far more than PBs in the middle-distance events - and Baddely possesses a keen racing brain. That should enable him to qualify comfortably, and we should have plenty of opportunity to trade out if we get nervous later on.

Men's Hammer

Three-time World Champion and silver medallist in Athens, Ivan Tikhon should be long odds-on for this event. With a PB of 86.73 - only 1cm short of the World Record - and a World's Best this year of 84.51 - nearly three metres clear of the next best athlete - it is his event to lose. The [2.1] currently available looks massive to me, and I'd recommend a 4pts bet.

Men's 100m

The editors at betting.betfair, in their own preview of the 100m, have described Tyson Gay as a "firebrand", painting him as an attention-seeking extrovert. This seems unwarranted to me - everything I see Gay do is understated, polite and friendly... except on the track, that is.

In my eyes, this event has a clarity to it that isn't reflected in the betting market. The inexperienced Usain Bolt, and serial choker Asafa Powell, are far too short. There is a slight doubt over Gay's hamstring, but at [3.4] that is more than accounted for in the price and I would recommend a 3pts back of him at those odds.

Walter Dix and Darvis Patton are all-but assured safe passage through to the final, and I recommend a 1pt win bet on each at [42.0] and [110.0] respectively.

Jack's Selections for today's men's events are: