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Olympics Betting: 100m Preview

A lot can happen between now and the opening of the games and Jack Houghton will be keeping his powder dry for a while. But if you can't wait, runners at big odds provide value.

Two weeks ago I scribbled down some notes for this preview article. They read:

"Market will overreact to Bolt's World Record - Start was only difference between him and Gay in New York - Gay has experience of winning 100m at major championships - At likely prices, lay Bolt and back Gay."

But in the last week things have got a lot more complicated. So I'm starting from scratch. Which is perhaps a good place to start anyway.

Prior to this season, Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt was better known as a 200m runner. Twice winner of the World Juniors at the distance, he became the first teenager to run sub-20 seconds. Graduating to senior ranks, his best performance to date came at last year's World Championships, where he finished second to Tyson Gay.

This season he turned his attention to the 100m. In only his third run as a senior over the distance, he won the Jamaica Invitational in 9.76. Given the location and lack of opposition that day, many doubted the performance's validity. However, two runs later he beat Tyson Gay in New York, lowering the 100m World Record to 9.72 and, in the process, silencing those doubters.

And that's where my mind was. Plenty of athletes have run fast early-season 100m races, gone into the major championship as favourites, and then disappointed. Bolt's fellow Jamaican, Asafa Powell, is a case in point. He went into the 2004 Olympics and 2007 World Championships as the fastest man in the world, but came out of both with nothing.

As I've written elsewhere, the Olympics are different to anything else. And anyway, there was little between Bolt and Gay in New York except one good start and one bad. With eight weeks to go until the Beijing final, I was confident the market would overreact to Bolt's World Record, allowing us to lay the Jamaican short whilst being able to back the proven Gay at tasty odds.

Then Gay won the US Olympic Trials in a wind-assisted (and therefore no good for World Record purposes) 9.68. Bugger! There goes any hope of getting decent odds on Gay. Why couldn't he of just qualified and done his talking in August? But wait for it, to add further complication, when competing in the 200m heats at the same trials a week later, Gay pulled out after 50m clutching his hamstring. After an MRI scan at the weekend, he has been put on "active rest" for 12-14 days, whereupon it is planned he will resume his Olympic preparations.

So we're left with what I think is a weak favourite for the title in Usain Bolt, but with no obvious competitor to beat him come Beijing. I'm hoping Gay makes a full recovery, runs some solid whilst not scintillating trials pre-Olympics, but leaves enough doubt as to his wellbeing to garner us a better price. We'll probably know more of where things stand at the end of this month, when Bolt, Gay and Powell are slated to meet each other at Crystal Palace.

One athlete I'd be prepared to lay ferociously at this point is the latter-named Powell. A perennial choker when it matters, he hasn't run below 9.90 seconds so far this season. This slightly lacklustre form, coupled with his small-time temperament, makes him ludicrously short at the currently available [3.65]. After all, how can Derrick Atkins, who comfortably beat Powell in last year's World Championships, currently be [36.0], over 13 times Powell's odds?

It's worth waiting to have all the national squads announced before getting seriously involved in the market. A lot can happen - injury scares and drug tests; to name two - between now and mid-August. The markets will be much more active by then, allowing a proper bet. But if you can't keep your hands in your pockets and fancy a fiver on some runners at big odds, then the aforementioned Atkins is value at [36.0].

Having both qualified for the US team, running 9.8 and 9.84 respectively at their trials, Dix at [29.0] and Patton (yet to be priced up at the time of writing but likely to be [34.0] or bigger) are also worth a few quid.

But I'll be waiting a while yet. Those fancy prices aren't likely to go anywhere and we'll know more by the end of this month.