The French Connection: Welsh hitman, Brighton bounce, battling Barnet

The French Connection / Andrew French / 06 March 2009 / Leave a Comment

An in-form free-scoring striker is great to have at any time of the season, but when you're in a relegation dogfight, it can be the difference between surviving and sinking.

It's no coincidence that Nottingham Forest's ability to scramble clear of the relegation zone has occurred at the same time as hitman Robert Earnshaw has been finding the net with regularity. The Welsh international - who has commanded more than £12.5m in transfer fees during his career - has netted eight in nine games, a period which has seen Forest win seven.

I believe they can maintain their momentum this weekend against a Swansea side that is in danger of drawing themselves out of the race for the play-offs. The Swans have shared the points in an incredible 17 of their 35 league games this season - if they had managed to turn just six of those stalemates into victories, they would be second in the table.

Roberto Martinez's side are clearly hard to beat, but they can throw in the odd duff performance - they were well beaten by another struggling side, Watford, only a few weeks ago.

With Earnshaw on fire and Forest boosted by loan signings Isaiah Osbourne (Aston Villa) and Gary McSheffrey (Birmingham), I'm kicking off the treble with a home win in this one at [2.94].

There's so often an inexplicable upturn in form displayed by teams when a new manager is appointed so struggling Brighton's decision to hand the reigns to Russell Slade on the eve of their trip to fellow relegation-zone tenants Leyton Orient only confirms my decision to back them as the second leg.

The Seagulls have captured three decent players on loan: Al Bangura (Watford), Matt Heath (Colchester) and Lloyd Owusu (Cheltenham). They have actually won more matches away than they have at home, and they will be fresh as their midweek trip to Bristol Rovers was postponed, while the O's were losing 3-2 at home to Peterborough.

The East London club have taken fewer points and scored less goals at home than anyone else in the division, and with the Seagulls knowing victory would see them leapfrog their hosts and possibly move out of the relegation zone, I think Slade will be celebrating a debut victory. Back Brighton at [3.5].

I'm staying with relegation battles in League Two, where suddenly Bournemouth have turned up the heat on all the other struggling sides by finally overcoming their points deduction and stepping out of the bottom two. Grimsby have taken their place, and that must have put the wind up the likes of Chester and Barnet, who are only a couple of bad results away from the trap door.

However, Chester are in freefall. Their 13-game winless runs stretches back to the end of December, and they have not won away from home since late November.

Barnet are far from safe either but they are showing some tremendous fighting spirit and have taken seven points from their last three games. Key to that mini revival has been their home form, where they have claimed back-to-back victories over Bradford and Rochdale.

A team in form at home against a side that hasn't won since Christmas? There's only one outcome for me, so back Barnet at [1.86].