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The French Connection: Ipswich, the Walsall/Tranmere draw and Bury are the good things this Saturday

4 April 2008

1. Ipswich to beat Colchester @ [2.18]
2. Walsall and Tranmere to draw @ [3.25]
3. Bury to beat Notts County @ [2.0]

I'm kicking off the treble by taking Ipswich to claim a victory this weekend that will condemn Colchester to League One football next season.

Town make the relatively short journey to Essex knowing just a point will lift them into a play-off place as sixth-placed Wolves don't have a game. However, Jim Magilton's side will not get a better opportunity to take all three points and I'm backing them at [2.18] to do so.

Colchester will be relegated if they lose, and their confidence will have been shattered by last week's 4-3 defeat at West Brom where they led 2-0 and 3-2 before conceding twice in stoppage time.

Ipswich do have a particularly poor away record for a team chasing promotion, but their overall stats hide a recent upturn in their performances on the road. All of their three away-day successes have come from their last six trips, and they have shown they can handle the challenge of a team threatened with the drop by winning at both Sheffield Wednesday and Scunthorpe.

Colchester have lost four of their last five at home and have shipped an alarming number of goals recently: 21 in seven games.

Ipswich are unbeaten in three and have conceded a solitary goal in that period - I believe that run will continue and they are part one of the treble.

In League One I'm looking for two teams chasing promotion to be sharing the spoils, as I'm backing the draw between Walsall and Tranmere at [3.25].

It's a game that will be hyped as a 'six-pointer', but so often these games become tight, cagey affairs with neither side wanting to risk taking nothing home amid their pursuit of all three points.

Ronnie Moore's Tranmere have tended to be cautious on their travels this season, and with other equally tricky games to come, he'll probably be happy to come away with a point.

What's more, Walsall have drawn eight of 19 home games and Tranmere have finished level in seven of their 20 away trips. I'm expecting both to extend those records with a stalemate at the Bescot this weekend.

With the bottom two seemingly cut adrift, Notts County look set to be safe and live to fight another season in League Two.

However, the Magpies' own miserable form has certainly kept it interesting at the foot of the table, and I'll be completing this week's treble by backing Bury to beat them at Gigg Lane at [2.0].

County have won just once in their last eight games and in the process have scored a measly three goals - although they haven't fared too badly at the other end, shipping only five in the same eight-game period.

Therefore, while I'm taking Bury to make the most of home advantage, it may not be by much. But with the Shakers resurgent under Alan Knill - they've won five of their last seven - they should be able to see off County.

So, this week's French Connection is backing Ipswich at [2.18], a draw between Walsall and Tranmere at [3.25] and Bury at [2.0] - a treble that pays around the [14.0] mark.