The French Connection: Back those that need points for treble joy

The French Connection / Editor / 16 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

If Swansea don't win this weekend, then their promotion hopes could be all but over come 5pm. But because I think the Swans have hit some form at just the right time to maintain their push for the play-offs, I'm making them the first leg of this week's treble.

Back-to-back wins have left the Welsh club hanging onto the coat tails of the teams above them, but if they fail to take three points in a home game with an out-of-sorts Bristol City side, then they will only have themselves to blame.

The Robins are without a win in five games and have lost their last four on the road. Although the Swans do have a tendency to draw too many games for their own good (20 in 23 games), the return to form of striker Jason Scotland (three goals in the last two games) could well make the difference in this one.

Therefore, back Swansea at [1.76].

I always like the chances of a team with everything to play for taking on opponents whose season is pretty much over - and that is what draws me to Brighton in League One.

Twelve months ago the Seagulls were on the edge of the play-offs, but a year on and they find themselves staring down the barrel of relegation. They have the worst home record in the division but they should have the confidence to add to their paltry tally of four wins after winning consecutive away games.

The visitors to the Withdean, Oldham, have been on the slide in recent weeks and are without a win in nine games. That has left them in a position where they can no longer reach the play-off places, and so while they may have pride to play for in their remaining three fixtures, their need for points is nowhere near as strong as their hosts.

So, Brighton are the selection at [1.85].

One relegation slot in League Two has been decided, and it's a case of one from three for the other. Grimsby are among the trio waiting on 'relegation row', and so their home game with Port Vale really is a must-win - and I think they will.

The Mariners have won three of their last five, and Monday's fine 2-0 away success at Notts County shows they are in good heart.

Visitors Port Vale are not mathematically safe but should be okay - and that must be a relief for their fans as they have been on an alarming slide recently. With no wins and just two goals in their last six games, the Valiants must be mighty glad they got points on the board earlier in the season.

I think there will be some happy people on Cleethorpes sea front on Saturday night, so I'm backing Grimsby at [1.75].